Real Estate Agent - The Second Worst Job In America Today

The Orange County Register. "Orange County real estate agents collectively earned about 13 percent less in commissions from home sales last year than the year before. And their income was down about 42 percent from 2005, shrinking by $645 million in the past two years."

"The reductions, spurred by two years of declining home sales, prompted more agents to either leave the business or find jobs elsewhere, while offices either closed or merged with other brokerages. Real estate brokers also reduced agent positions while cutting support staff and costs."

"‘The industry as a whole is definitely taking a gigantic haircut in commissions,’ said Steven Thomas, president of RE/MAX Real Estate Services of Aliso Viejo."

"Forty-five percent of all agents affiliated with an active Orange County real estate office had no income last year from commissions, said Patrick Veling, president of Real Data Strategies Inc. of Brea. Of the 55 percent of agents who had a sale last year, half did just one or two transactions apiece."

"To put that in perspective, a sales agent’s typical commission split amounts to a fourth of the overall commission, or about $8,900 for the sale of one median-priced home in 2007. Fewer than 28 out of every 100 agents did more than two transactions last year, according to Veling."

"‘We have too many agents in the business. This will filter them out,’ said Bill Plattos, broker for a regional chain based in Costa Mesa. ‘People thought it was easy. They muddled it up. Some of them were unprofessional.’"

"Virtually every agent knows someone who’s gotten out of the business, although most who have taken employment elsewhere say they’re keeping their licenses active and trying to keep a hand in the trade."

"One agent, saying he earned just $12,000 last year, took a job at a fitness center to cover living expenses."

"Edward Campbell of Midway City launched his real estate sales career in early 2007 but after six months realized that residential sales were not for him. He switched to commercial real estate."

"Campbell recalled holding two open houses in early 2007 to which nobody came. Those days followed attempts to market the house, then time spent setting up signs and flags. Only to end up spending the day sitting in an empty house, hoping somebody would show up."

"‘It was just boring,’ Campbell said. ‘It was just standing around doing nothing.’" (link)







Okay now, I tried to find some worse jobs (pictured above) but I am sure they pay more than $12,000 per annum. (Don't forget sewer diving.) I have no sympathy for anyone who "loses" income. Y'all have to remember, when us traders have a bad year, it's a NEGATIVE one. Anyway, the agents out there who hustle will still do quite alright - it's the 25 year old newbies and part-timers who are done.

The only job worse than real estate brokering today is, of course, mortgage brokering.

Agitprop Update

"The oil companies, the predatory student loan companies, the insurance companies and the drug companies have had seven years of a president who stands up for them. I will be a president who stands up for all of you...."

That's a quote from Hillary Clinton's campaign speech yesterday.

I must admit, I haven't heard the expression "predatory student loan companies" before. It must be a new bogeyman.

Short JP Morgan Chase - And My Trading Update

Nothing but dividends for the past decade...

Last week, it was formally announced that JP Morgan Chase would up its approximate $2 bid for Bear Stearns to near $10 a share. JPM climbed 2pts and I got short at 47.18 because well, I didn't see that as "bullish" for the stock.

Shoot first, ask questions later, right?



Then I got to looking at its shorter term chart and discovered an interesting pattern. JP Morgan Chase is clearly in a downtrend over the past year and its slide has been peppered with sharp, fleeting bounces. I'd classify this pattern as a short-seller's delight. What a wonderful thing it is to whack a stock and get paid so quickly!

Not even a week later and JPM is down to 42.86. It's too bad I shorted a piddling of a position.

Here is as good as place as any to update my trading travails.

I am currently short BAC, COF, JPM, HBC, WFC, FED, FNM, HRB, WB, and SPG.

Only SPG and HBC have really clobbered me - so far.

The only stocks I am long are GOOG and FMD - the latter sort of being a hedge against my rather large and growing portfolio of financial shorts.

I have been completely annihilated and thus shaken out of my Treasury market short (30 year bond). Though with the stock market melting down, gold having recently cleared $1,000 an ounce, and oil at $106 per barrel, I think it's fair to say that my End-Of-The-World Trade was for the most part intellectually correct.

So how come I am still impoverished? Well, Treasuries of all maturities exploded in the flight to "quality", er insanity. In fact so many institutional investors and worrywarts are scrambling for them that there is somewhat of a physical shortage in the marketplace. These clowns think Treasuries are safe, well, they're going to learn otherwise when government debt gaps down one day and never looks back. There's already been a panic "run" on the dollar - so a "run, to the exits", on Treasuries will be as unsurprising as the current housing crash was. T-Bills and T-Notes can easily gap down 10%-15% from these nose-bleed prices. And, as for the temporary shortage, well, our bankrupt Federal government has already pre-solved that problem with the Medicare and Social Security promises. They have already started increasing the size of weekly Treasury auctions - as they well should do at these prices.

(The only problem is, the Feds are using the added cash, and then some, to buy up toxic, distressed mortgage debt that's probably going to zero when the long bond implodes.)

The current financial panic is pretty darn scary. People are worried about the integrity of every part of the system. Is your money in the bank safe? Some people have advised moving funds to "trust banks". Are CDs safer than money markets? Do you have funds at bankrupt institutions like Washington Mutual, National City, or First Federal?

Personally, even with no equity or real estate exposure, I must say I am pretty darn scared of how this drama is going to play out. The government is in a full-blown panic, legislating, bail-out mode and we haven't even faced job losses or tax revenue declines, yet.



Now to cheer you up even more, MAKE SURE you watch this video of James Grant.

It's very important that y'all watch that clip. Happy dis-investing!

On Creativity

Throughout my life I have always considered myself to be "uncreative". I simply could or did not build, imagine, or produce anything. In fact, I reckon this blog is the first and only tangible thing I have ever produced in my entire life.

So why wasn't I creative? I always assumed I lacked the gene but have since dismissed that explanation. In fact, I am feeling my creative juices swell these days, so much so that I am even contemplating writing some fiction! So apparently I do have the capacity to imagine. Heck, most of my utterances are total BS anyway - how much of a leap is there from that to the land of make-believe?

Here's a long (20 minute) clip of Ken Robinson who asks, "Do Schools Kill Creativity":



Ken brings up the point that modern schooling is only 100 years old and that it was set up to serve "industrialists" by emphasizing math and literacy instead of "creativity". He doesn't dare mention the "political mind control" aspect to his progressive audience. It's not even clear that he understands that phenomenon. But his talk is peppered with decent jokes and has at least a palatable thrust, so there's reason enough to watch it.

So, does mass schooling in fact kill creativity?

Of course it does. It saps that and a few other core human potentialities.

The last two books I've read were on Mark Twain and Walt Disney - two towering examples of American creativity. Perhaps, I can soon do a more involved post on them and the subject in the future.

If I could only create free time...

Mail Order Bride Fulminations

In the course of my continuing self-educational program I happened to peruse old friend Perry Eidelbus' blog recently. On it I saw he had another net altercation and proudly linked to it so we could all behold his....idiocy?

On AlarmingNews.com he was arguing with one "Hashfanatic" about something when the debate escalated to old-fashioned invective. Some of Perry's choice words:

No sh*t...you think?

I should have known you'd resort to this vapid socialist rhetoric.

Complete bullsh*t. Do you even know what the hell you're talking about, or do you have to lie to promote your agenda?

You're just jealous that you saw my blog and realized my fiancee is far more beautiful, far more of a real woman, than you could ever hope to have.

Ah yes, you couldn't resist going back to ad hominem...

Make me, *sshole. You just try, and I swear to God in heaven, you'll have so much 7.62 mm in your *ss that your descendants will think they were born with buckshot.

You say "good night," and I say "go to hell." You just name when, and where, and I will deport your sorry face into the pavement.

Listen, f*cker, you're the one who threatened to "deport me." You want to threaten me, fine, but be prepared to reap the consequences. Go right ahead and try, because it will be the last, I swear to God, the last action you'll take.

c*nt-faces like you

...before I open up another can of whoop-*ss for you.

Name the place and time, punk. Then again, we all know you're just a coward.

Note that the ellipses are mine - I've got to keep my blog moving through those parental content filters.

So how does this involve moi?

Well, there was a part of the exchange that sent me reeling with laughter:

Hashfanatic - Perry? Do you think it's wise to threaten people with firearms over the internet? Particularly with your stellar relationship with the NYPD, and a third-world mail-order bride on the way?

Perry - ...if you insult my fiancee again with the lie that she's a mail-order bride, I will beat you within a millimeter of your sorry life.

Now allow me to explain why this is so doggone funny.



Flashback to January 14th, 2008 - that was the date of my uproarious post The Mail-Order Bride - An End Around.

When I posted it, I figured that if Perry had a brain cell in his dome, that he'd ignore my post to at least limit dissemination. I am right sure he saw my jab, either via an email alert on his name or through his own blog traffic. For all I know, I may have only sent him 3 clicks on his blog. So he likely steamed in private until someone else accused him taking the Mail-Order route. His AlarmingNews spat came two weeks later on January 27th.

Now this is pure conjecture but it looks like Perry was going to ignore my provocation but once another combatant nailed him with his UPS bride, he figured he better address the fact that, for all intents and purposes, he was looking like a mail-order bride purchaser. So, the tool decided to respond to my post.

What a mistake that was.

Here's the link to his retort which posted February 14th. In it he asserts that I can't afford a plane ticket to the Philippines, that I am a "moron", a "typical liberal", that I "beat my wife", among other comically ludicrous accusations. Of course the tough guy threatens my physically, again, over the web. He's certainly mastered the art of the template tantrum - "Liar, liar...FU...I'll beat you up" - Yaaaaawn. Y'all are probably going to have to read the entire post to grasp its inanity.

Now it gets even better.

The next thing I know, my original Mail-Order End Around post is getting slammed with hits. My tracker indicated a ton of clicks from the Philippines and Utah via Perry's artless post. Utah I believe is where Perry's extended family hails from. And the Philippines, well, I am sure it had to be the Mail-Order Bride and her family reading about her, well, Mail-Order characteristics - and not to mention the unbecoming portrait of her purchaser betrothed.

So Perry succeeded in alerting all his readers, fans, friends, family, and future in-laws (pending Homeland Security clearance) to my biting post.

Don't y'all think he should have stuck to his original plan of ignoring it?

But I am the "moron"...

Recently I emailed Hashfanatic,

I was just reading your hilarious "dialogue" with Perry Eidelbus from an AlarmingNews post (1/27) when I busted a gut laughing.

Tell me, did you discern the "mail-order" status of his "fiancee" from my blog post?

http://marginalizingmorons.blogspot.com/2008/01/mail-order-bride-end-around.html

Or did you put 2 and 2 together yourself?

Hash responded that he didn't see my Mail-Order Bride post, that his riposte was of his own creation. Ergo, Perry faked himself out. Remember from above, I conjectured that the only reason Perry published a response was because Hash was belting him with the same stick as yours truly. The whole thing reminded me of Seinfeld's The Red Dot episode:

Elaine - Hey George, did you buy that sweater knowing that red dot was on it because you could get it at a discount?

George - What? Did I what?

Elaine - You did didn't you.

George - Elaine, I'm, I'm shocked. I'm shocked. Here I go out in the spirit of the season (Elaine looking like she's not buying a word of it) and spend all my savings to buy you the most beautiful Christmas sweater I have ever seen to show my appreciation to you at Christmas and this is the thanks that I get at Christmas.

Elaine - Well Jerry told me that you did.

George - You told her? How could you tell her? I told you not to say anything.

Jerry - I didn't tell her you stupid idiot. She tricked you.



See what I mean when I said:

Well, when it comes to Perry Eidelbus, it seems you can put the poop ten miles away from him, send in in the opposite direction, blindfolded, and he'll still end up walking on it.

...the other day???

Now a poster named Contractor left a very well written indictment of Perry on my blog and the Petulant One devoted another entire blog post to addressing it.

Contractor accused Perry of being somewhat "racist" for explicitly wanting to marry a Filipina. Perry insisted he was not; he insisted that he was "traditionalist".

Only later on in the post could readers grasp the full meaning of that defense. Apparently the tradition in his family is to strike out in America and then resort to finding a spouse in the Philippines. He writes:

I've been thinking of moving there, as a matter of fact, as my father did. He went there on business, to invest in mining operations with some friends, and then he happened to meet and fall in love with someone he met at a party. So my father also married a "mail-order bride" too?

Like father, like son. Is there any doubt that the loserhood is genetic?

Is there any doubt that Perry Eidelbus is about as self-oblivious as one can get?

Man, his self-emasculating revelations seemingly have no bottom.

Lastly, some "childhood classmate" of Perry emailed me a pic of little Perry from way back when.





Now I am skeptical as to whether this really is little Perry. Nonetheless, it may as well be.

Same amplitude. Same dorkitude.

Oh boy, now I've done it. I really hope Perry threatens me with his gun this time. I feel that if anyone (Hashfanatic?) merits a virtual gun waving it's me!

I've got to end this here; and I haven't even gotten to how Perry pathetically tried to rat me out to Google for using his "copyrighted" images. What a "libertarian"!!!

UPDATE - Perry has blocked my direct links to his posts. So to get to his blog from here, one must right-click on my links, copy the shortcut, and paste into another browser tab or window. For more on this childish tactic of his - click here.

Marginalizing Peter Bernstein

John Maudlin's newsletter gave the stage this week to Peter Bernstein. I suffered through the tedious piece waiting for a whiff of insight when I came upon this doozie of a paragraph:

The root of today's problems in the financial markets and in the economy as a whole is the household sector. The point needs no elaboration, but its significance cannot be minimized. As we have argued on more than one occasion, the shrinkage in the personal savings rate is not the result of consumer profligacy, as other commentators persist in describing it. Rather, the savings rate has been suppressed by a slowdown in the growth of household incomes.

At this point, your Commi-dar should be blaring.

Yeah dunderhead, our neighbors with their BMW, adjustable mortgage, cleaning ladies, who eat or order out every meal aren't saving because those evil businesses aren't paying them more.

They are borrowing because they have to? My butt they are.

How about this Peter, "if you make less money, you should spend less" - no matter what the reason for your earnings shortfall???

Surely they can work sage advice like that into the lofty curriculum at Harvard, no?

According to Wikipedia, Peter Bernstein is a 89 year-old Crimson alum. I don't care what he did or how sharp he was a half century ago. At this point he's a decrepit agitator who doesn't merit an audience. Kind of like that other spotlight-craving egomaniac.



These Morons really do live in an alternate universe where up means down, right is wrong, and cause and effect are conflatable. Bernstein reminds me of those smart guys who were insisting that social problems like hunger, obesity, and expensive healthcare explain why public schools stink. Here is the link for that one. I'll warn you, it is a long, edifying post - albeit mostly on Health Savings Accounts (HSAs).

Nanny Criteria

If you are, by chance, one of these people that's proudly resistive to popular culture and hasn't yet seen Brooke White perform on American Idol, watch any of the clips you find here.



She also has a beautiful personality to match her obvious talent and stunning looks. No matter how she does on the show this season (ten contestants left), I get the feeling she is going to a star recording artist for years to come.

In her pre-American Idol life, she was a nanny who, as my wife unequivocally stated, "WOULD NEVER BE HIRED TO WORK IN THIS HOUSEHOLD." There's no way my wife would let her babysit and "play house" alongside this author on a daily basis. In fact, in the CraigsList ads my wife has specifically stipulated, "Wanted - Homely Lesbian Babysitter".

Now here's another nanny that my wife would never hire - even for $2.50 an hour.



Searching for that pic, I was led to a blog titled I Saw Your Nanny.

Immediately I said, oh boy, what kind of soft porn site did I stumble upon here? In the interests of journalism, I just had to investigate further.

Turns out to be some type of anti-nanny site where all sorts of people submit content on nanny observations. It's, among other things, a rat-out line for NBB - Nannies Behaving Badly.

On Friday March 14th 2008 around 12:00 pm I witnessed a nanny that makes the rest of us Nannies look horrid. I was at the park near Shepton HS and Huffman Elementary,off Plano parkway in West Plano TX, with my charge when I saw a little girl all alone on the playground. The girl had blonde hair and was wearing red pants and pink Crocs. There were teenagers swinging nearby but I knew she didn't belong to them off to the other side of the park about 100-200 ft. there was a young Hispanic woman wearing a gray sweatshirt and an older Hispanic man that when it dawned on me that the little girl must be this woman's charge. My biggest problem was that this woman wasn't paying attention to her charge and the little girl was only about 1. You cannot leave your charge alone like that that's horrible and irresponsible.

The site clearly gets a lot of traffic. People, mostly women, really do enjoy reading this real world gossip. The fact remains, nobody cares about the economic nuances of homeownership and the other stale motifs of my blog!

Now getting back to the full-mooning nanny pictured above...

They say that plumber's butt is "the new cleavage" - heck, it's got a Wikipedia entry. Even with my wife's strict hiring criteria, I have been personally mooned by no less than three of my sitters over the past couple of years - though they were more of the crescent variety. I must say I found it a little discomfiting. Two of them even skipped the thong altogether!



Experts say the thong is on the way out - but, according to my googling, they've been saying this for a few years now. At the bare minimum, they should at least legislate a size limit.

Lastly, here's a hilarious video spoof on the original plumber's butt.

The Virtuous Paternalist

Look at this new show on HGTV:



In the opinion of many people, I am a meanie. I am always mocking and Marginalizing and thus brushing off flack from weak-stomached wimps. But this blog can't possibly transmit the full gamut of my psychological omnipotence. If getting under people's skin was an Olympic event, every four years the rest of the world would be vying for the silver. I fire virtual BBs at a twit like Perry Eidelbus and my high-minded fans are taken aback. Y'all should see the nukes that I fire in person! Y'all should see me when I have a serious beef with someone. Let's just say, there were more than a few new traders in my pits that I kept from sleeping at night. One of my victims once brought his wife down to the floor (nothing any 3-digit IQ'd person would ever do) and after I was identified to her, I swear it took all her fortitude not to run over and gouge my eyes out. I was sort of the opposite of Joe Popularity. Instead of being the guy whose affection everyone sought, I am a guy whose dis-affection no one relishes. Even guys who hated my guts would choose me for their pick-up basketball team; they just didn't want to play AGAINST me.

Anyway, I can be whatever the situation dictates. I can be the malicious Marginalizer or I can be the benevolent one. Like most psychopaths, I have convinced myself that my methods are truly in everyone else's best interest; my antics behoove the greater good.



For example, look at the "before" and "after" pics of a family member's cluttered basement. Now, I can't claim full responsibility for this particular triumph as there were multiple interventionists, nonetheless, I like to think posting the "before" pic on my blog played some small part in the (partial) de-cluttering - not to mention the months of in-person ribbing included in my service.

Is it cruel to put up a "Hurricane Katrina" pic of a dear relative's basement on the World Wide Web?

Well, what if it impels them reform?



Believe me, I have better things to do than mock Perry Eidelbus. But I am morally compelled to show him this tough love. Look at it this way, if someone else had smacked him down to size years ago, I would be relieved of the task. So who really is the virtuous one? I submit that it ain't any of those weak-stomached wimps who've given Perry a pass all his life. Those anti-interventionist buck-passers unwittingly let him grow into the animal insect that he is today. He's a very bright kid who will one day be thanking me for setting him straight. By the way, I am pretty sure he tattled on my last post to Google (owner of Blogger.com).

So, what about my methods?

As a youth, I used to whip my older brother's ass at ping pong. After a while I couldn't get him to play with me at all which really sucked. He said that he didn't mind losing to me, he just didn't like the "supercilious" or "hectoring" manner in which I beat him.

Now, did my brother learn from my domineering, smash-the-ball-so-it-bounces-off-his-face, ping pong lessons? Did it inspire him to concentrate and become a better player? Of course not. He threw a hammer at me - just missing my precious dome. In fact, he once pushed me down an empty man hole. Another time he pummeled my head with a sizable log. And when my head is shaved you can see at least a third scar on my scalp that memorializes our fraternal rapport. These all weren't post-ping pong incidents but they shed a little light into the upbringing that shaped my Marginalizing methodology

We were four kids raised in 1,200 square foot house. There were only five years from oldest to youngest; we fought a lot and teased even more. No one was immune. My thick skin was surely environmentally wrought. Admittedly, one of my biggest character flaws is that I too often presume others to be equally insensitive to goading, ribbing, and outbursts of brutal honesty.

To all my style critics out there I say, "Hey, you should have seen my immature antics a couple of years ago....I AM MAKING PROGRESS."

Another thing about me is, if y'all didn't figure it out by now, I've always got a rejoinder, or three, ready to fire back at a moment's notice.



Lastly, there's an expression that goes like this, "If you put the poop out in front of them....they'll [Morons] always step in it." Well, when it comes to Perry Eidelbus, it seems you can put the poop ten miles away from him, send in in the opposite direction, blindfolded, and he'll still end up walking on it.

I have a nice little post on him raring to go, but in the spirit of Easter and my "progress"....I won't post it until next week.

Abby Joseph Cohen - Too Bullish On Stocks, Too Bearish On Planet Earth

Goldman Sachs Perma-Bull Abby Joseph Cohen made the news this week.

She was demoted:

Goldman's Cohen Replaced as Chief S&P 500 Forecaster

By Lynn Thomasson

March 17 (Bloomberg) -- Abby Joseph Cohen, the second-most bullish Wall Street strategist at the start of the year, was replaced by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as the bank's chief forecaster for the U.S. stock market.

Cohen, 56, gave up the title of chief investment strategist and will no longer make predictions for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in her new role as senior investment strategist, Goldman spokesman Ed Canaday said in an interview. David Kostin will make the calls as U.S. investment strategist.

Kostin, 44, said today he expects the benchmark index for U.S. stocks to fall 10 percent to 1,160 in the "near term" before rebounding to 1,380 by year's end. Cohen in December predicted the S&P 500 would reach 1,675 in 2008.

"Sounds like it's a downgrade in a position," said Andy Engel, who helps manage $4.3 billion at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management in Minneapolis. "People have been disappointed in her outlook over the years, and she's been pegged as overly bullish on the market."

The S&P 500, which has fallen 13 percent this year, lost 0.9 percent to 1,276.60 today.

Cohen, known for her bullish predictions during the 1990s, will develop public policy ideas related to capital markets as president of Goldman's Global Markets Institute. She wrote about growing investor interest in climate change and covered a United Nations meeting on the subject in a report dated March 14.

Her year-end forecast for the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2008 was second only to the prediction of 1,700 from Bear Stearns Cos.'s Jonathan Golub, HSBC Holdings Plc's Kevin Gardiner and UBS AG's David Bianco.

Cohen at the start of 2007 expected the S&P 500 to rise 9.3 percent to 1,550 that year, then raised her year-end forecast to 1,600 on May 7, when the S&P 500 stood at 1,505.62. The index ended 2007 at 1468.36, 8.2 percent below her forecast.



Anyone who's followed the market over the past decade knows Cohen as the dimwit who screamed "Buy. Buy. Buy" the entire way down from NASDAQ 5,000 (to 1,135!). You'd think they would have sent her out to pasture after that. Apparently Goldman isn't comfortable with her as the firm's mouthpiece for a second market meltdown this decade.

Now I could give two hoots for travails of this particular woman. But one thing that struck me from the article is the color of Abby's new pasture - green.

Cohen will work with clients "around the world and provide commentary on financial markets focusing more on longer-term market activity," Canaday said in an e-mailed statement.

"I spend half of my time traveling overseas, working with our clients on issues like environmental sensitivity, regulatory matters and accounting," Cohen said during in an interview today.

I did some googling and found other evidence of her green fetish.

Abby Joseph Cohen, managing director at Goldman Sachs, noted the public was not yet rewarding sensitivity to climate issues in the marketplace or at the polls. "Someone's obviously buying and driving those S.U.V.'s, and they are voting," she said. link

Ms. Cohen outlined the obstacles where leadership is needed to improve financial assessments of climate change risks. "The data by itself is not good" to measure the impact. The time horizon of institutional investors is increasingly shorter, creating a mismatch between long-term objectives and short-term demands for portfolio management. Furthermore, she said, it is "very hard to find any studies in environmentally sound investing strategies that have led to better returns" than those of broad market indices. link

"Investors believe it is simply not acceptable to be environmentally irresponsible," link

Admittedly, those quotes don't paint her as the second coming of Al Gore or John Doerr, but mark my words, I am sure Abby Joseph Cohen swallows the whole "climate change" fable.

Quite frankly, nobody could indulge the inanity by globetrotting in furtherance thereof, if they weren't aboard the looney eco-pagan train themselves.

Cohen is a weird bird to say the least. Most people mistakenly assume she is a lesbian based strictly on appearance and stereotype. I'll say this, if she is, her husband and two daughters are tremendous cover! Others find her monotone manner of speaking to be off-putting - though it isn't very pronounced in the only video of her I could find on youtube. (Take comfort, in it she predicts "no recession" for 2008.)

If we can be chauvinistic for a second...

Nor is she steeped in femininity, with a man's name "Joseph" and those unadorned ears. I don't have a problem with women who keep their maiden names; I have a problem with their wuss husbands. You could be the biggest alpha male in town, but if your wife keeps her name, make no mistake, every guy around is mocking you. Now read this queer statement Cohen made for Businessweek:

"Every male CEO in the country should be required to have a working wife."

What? Is she prejudiced against domesticity? Against tennis clubbing trophy wives?

Does she think kids are best raised by Latin American nannies?

Like I said, she's a weirdo of uncertain utility. A Perma-Bull is essentially worthless as they don't even provide good contrary indicators. For that, I find the incontinent blowhard Jim Cramer far more useful.



Go save the planet Abby, you've killed enough portfolios already.

Obama's Theocracy

"When God created the Earth he entrusted us to take responsibility to take care of that Earth,"

Aha!

A Creationist has infiltrated the Democratic Party.

But on the other hand, he does speaks ill about those who have "hijacked religion".



I guess what we can infer from these somewhat contradictory sentiments is that "religion" should only be "hijacked" in the furtherance of eco-paganism.

It takes some stones to literally drench one's campaign rhetoric with religiosity and then turn around and condemn others for similar politicization.

Rumor also has it that he has been known to say "G*d bless you" in the presence of sneezers.

If I were a militant atheist, Islamist, or whatever, THAT would offend the bejesus out of me!

Big Government As "Victim"

With a reeling economy, it's hunting season for statists. They'll be ramping up the agitprop against sundry timely bogeymen: "volatile financial markets", Wall Street, predatory lending, the "credit crisis"...

So Boston's Turnpike Authority is facing rising debt payments. Was it Wall Street that forced it to borrow short for its long term infinite obligations?



Note this article from the Boston Globe used the subtitle - "Authority a victim of recent turmoil in finance markets"

That's right, while glibly mentioning a recent toll hike (January) and adding more tolls to "create a fairer toll system", Noah Bierman's article paints Big Government - not taxpayers and commuting wage slaves - as the victim.

"At the same meeting, the authority's board discussed a preliminary report on how to create a fairer toll system, which could mean adding tolls in some areas that are currently free, including the Interstate 90 extension. Cohen said the board remains in a "research phase" on the toll issue, which will take four to six months as the Patrick administration looks for cost savings elsewhere.

Cohen has been cautious on the issue, trying to steer clear of controversy since an aide public discussed adding tolls to Interstate 93.

But the report from Cohen's staff suggested Turnpike Authority officials might look at reinstating some Western Turnpike tolls for cars, as well as a Newton toll that ended in 1996. The report also said that the state could add an optional toll lane on I-93 that would let solo drivers use the carpool lane if they pay a fee. That idea, often called a HOT lane, has been raised in the past and has gained support nationally as US Secretary of Transportation Mary Peters has encouraged states to try it.

What would this discussion be without a mention of "carpooling" - as if that has anything to do with the incompetence of politicians whose solution to every problem of their own creation is a tax hike, a scapegoat, and these days, a rhetorical bone thrown to eco-pagans?



Y'all need to believe me when I tell you that Big Government is the biggest subprime borrower of them all.

Think about it. What exactly is the difference between your irresponsible neighbor with the adjustable or interest-only mortgage and the pols who build schools, roads, and tunnels with short term financing?

They both presume growing income and they both presume indefinite benign borrowing environments.

And "resets" and "recessions" are going to kill them both.

If only Big Government were going to die - instead us taxpayers will bear the agony - and it will morph into Bigger Government.

For example, my landlord is aboard the express train to bankruptcy. On the $600,000 (at best) house I rent from him, I just found out that his current $5,200 mortgage payment is scheduled to reset at over $7,500 per month. It's been tragic to hear him cheer every Federal Funds rate cut since September as they've been powerless to stave off his inevitable foreclosure. To his credit, he's refrained from blaming bogeymen for his plight - though he hasn't admitted to any personal culpability either.

Furthermore, just as homeowners are facing the double pain of a weaker job market and commodity inflation, municipalities are, and will continue to be, ravaged not only by sky-rocketing financing costs, but also withering tax revenues. Receipts of every stripe are spiraling down: property taxes, sales taxes, income taxes, corporate taxes, etc.

In fact, outside of commodity prices, it seems everything these days is dropping.

Note the very last thing to expect is an uptick in political competence.

Poor Big Government...just an innocent bystander caught in the crossfire of Wall Street greed.

Bear Stearns, Run By Meatheads?

Sorry for the poor chart. Click to enlarge.

This was the wild ride last Friday morning for Bear Stearns, an erstwhile major investment bank rumored to have "liquidity issues".

Where do you think I sold the BSC that I bought Thursday at $51.69?

Alright, I'll tell you. God forbid I tax your brains.

I sold it at $58.40 a mere 10 minutes before the spike (see the intraday chart above). I cursed myself for all of five minutes. Then after the nosedive began, I started tooting my horn. Bear Stearns closed the day at around $30 a share - well below the boundary of my chart.

Then this weekend, in lieu of filing for bankruptcy, sold itself to J.P. Morgan Chase for a whopping $2 a share.



There are plenty of other places to read and discuss the debacle. Find them on your own if so interested/ignorant.

I just wanted to offer this one little anecdote about Bear.

Now, fortunately I don't have any friends that work there. Though one of my wife's former bosses "just went to work for Bear Stearns" (it'll probably be a short-lived tenure as rumor has it that JPM is planning to reduced headcount by 50%).

But I did interview for a job at Bear about 6 years ago. In fact, the job opening was on the mortgage desk - the very desk that brought down the firm. For the interview I met with three gentlemen. The first two rounds went well, but then I met the honcho - Josh Weintraub.

This unmitigated a**hole came in, took one glance at my resume and snapped, "You're strong at math, huh?" He looked up, "What's eleven sixty-fourths of $27 million?"

I answered, the best I could off the top of my head. Then he asked me another one, and another one and another one, "What's twenty-three thirty-seconds of $61 million?". I might very well have gotten them all wrong; he was going so fast and demanding quick answers, I couldn't remember.

After this display of his superiority, he asked me a few things about my experience, patronized me some more, and abruptly left. Suffices to say, he didn't hire me, which was fine. At least I got to speak to three different people. I've had more frustrating job hunting experiences where the interviewers didn't even ask me a single question. I've also had my time wasted by job postings and interviews where there was clearly never an intent to hire anyone.

Supreme arrogance is not something that I can't handle - thanks to six years in a trading pit with lowest multi-millionaire scum of the earth. But what irritated me about Josh Weintraub was that he could see my math creds and my pit-trading experience yet he deliberately tried to fluster me. So he was fluent in sixty-fourths of large numbers - I bet if I asked him what 7 7/8 - 2 11/16 + 5 1/2 - 13/16 was, he wouldn't be able to compute so rapidly or accurately. (At the time, that would be the quick math an option floor trader would be proficient at.) The fact is, nobody can do the rapid computation right away - it takes practice. To put it mildly, there is nothing about my Olympian math credentials that should ever make another human being question my quantitative abilities.

My pachydermal memory may have even forgot this egomaniac if I hadn't 1) seen him in Trader magazine recently and 2) been thinking about Bear Stearns amidst it's demise.

The Senior Managing Director of Mortgage-Backed-Securities recently flexed his ego and muscles at some Wall Street charity boxing event. Good for him!



Now, let me ask you a question: From a profiling standpoint, does this big shot look like a savvy, intellectual who's competent to to be juggling billions of investors monies?

Or does he look (and sound) like some Cro-Magnon, meathead footballer you hated in high school?

They say that 30% of Bear Stearns' stock is owned by its employees.

Here's hoping that Josh Weintraub was arrogant and stupid enough to own just a few too many shares. I should email him,

Hey Josh, real quick, no paper, what's eleven sixty-fourths of your personal net worth?!?!?!



In all frankness, with the billions of losses Bear posted in 2007 and all the lost brokerage assets (starting in August), why the heck didn't Bear fire its head of MBS Trading?

Because he could box?

Sure, it must have been someone else's fault.

If you think I am being pretty harsh on a guy based on some 5 minute interview years ago, then you are probably right.

Though, in fairness, he was gratuitously rude to me back then.

And, if you find my schadenfreude towards a guy who likely helped obliterate the net worth of 14,000 of his co-workers (not to mention shareholders) to be a little overdone, than you ought to head over to the comment threads of Calculated Risk.

The denizens of that blog have an unsettling fetish for the misery of others.

I drop in there once in a while just to make myself feel charitable.

The Spitzer Pig-Pile

It's simply not possible to turn on AM radio or a television newschannel these days without hearing about Eliot Spitzer.

[The sitting Governor of New York was just busted for diddling prostitutes - for a decade!]

So why exactly is the uproar so deafening? Who knows. I've always held the business-bashing scumbag in the highest contempt so my glee should be expected. But there's a popular pile-on including those less acquainted with Spitzer's treachery.

Sure we have the gross, naked hypocrisy of a holier-than-thou prosecutor.

Then we have the prodigious dollar amounts Spitzer spent on wetting his whistle. The public, mostly all strapped to tight family budgets, never does appreciate disgusting wastes of money - at least when they aren't sheltered from the truth. Just overpay an error-prone professional shortstop and watch the fireworks fly...

There's also the pure stupidity of Spitzer's subterfuge. You'd think a legal professional would understand that wiring thousands of dollars leaves an indelible paper trail. Everyone loves to denounce a Moron; it's a fail-safe prescription for improved self-esteem (even effective for Morons themselves!).

I don't really like to address topics like these on my blog so I'll make this quick.

The reason I loathe Eliot Spitzer is simple. His ascendancy really depressed me. The fact that New York, the hub of free market capitalism, could rally behind and elect an inveterate business-basher doesn't bode well for this country. If New Yorkers can't grasp the damage wrought by the likes of Spitzer's corporate persecution, then how can we expect the rest of America to? Eliot's rise was a veritable middle finger to productive America; and it spawned a spate of mimics like Massachusetts' William Galvin.



This morning I saw a headline,

"Spitzer's Wife Urges Him Not To Resign".

Go figure.

Her intractability has obviously been a problem for a while.

Naples Real Estate Update

As I mentioned in a previous post, the Naples/Fort Myers area of Florida is currently the foreclosure epicenter of the nation. Here's the text of an email my real estate guy from down there just sent me:

FYI, BAC owns 12 properties in Naples..Countrywide 15.

In Lee County BAC owns 66...Countrywide 17.

Citibank 9 and 20. I thought citi was the biggest dummy. Let's see how this plays out...

The important point to take from this anecdotage may be what it reveals about Bank of America.

Supposedly, according to Wall Street wisdom, Ken Lewis and Co. have the lowest exposure to the housing bust. But as you can see, they are already extremely competitive with Countrywide when it comes to bad lending in this particular region.

So maybe BAC has more bad mortgage debt than everyone thinks. I remember getting essentially attacked by a BAC branch loan officer in Charlotte after merely glancing at their posted mortgage rates, "ARE YOU BUYING A HOUSE??? DO YOU NEED A MORTGAGE???" They certainly seemed like aggressive lenders to me. Furthermore, these existing losses beg the question of why the heck do they want to pile on more via the Countrywide acquisition. As I type this CFC shares are down to a scant $4.36 per share. I still maintain that despite the density and ego of its chairman Ken Lewis, there's still a chance that BoA bails out of its Countrywide bid. (Elevated option premiums are suggesting uncertainty as well.)

My Naples real estate guy also sent me this item:



It's a 10,000 square foot mansion in Naples that is currently owned by, you guessed it, the Bank of America.

So long as they hold this foreclosed property, they'll be on the hook for $65,000 in annual taxes and $7,200 in HOA fees - those losses, of course, fall on top of the bath they likely took on the failed loan. For the moment, you can click here to see the full house details.

Maybe BoA is stumbling because their management has other non-financial priorities?

Bank Of America CEO: Carbon Emissions Need Cap-And-Trade System


RALEIGH, N.C. (AP)--Private investors alone can't spur an environmentally friendly "green economy," Bank of America Corp. (BAC) Chief Executive Ken Lewis said Tuesday, as he called on Congress to create a cap-and-trade system to help control carbon emissions.

Such a cap-and-trade system would allow businesses to buy and sell emissions credits - selling extra allowances if they come in under a carbon-emission quota, and buying them if exceed the cap. It was one of several suggestions Lewis made to policy makers in a speech at the Institute for Emerging Issues forum, held at North Carolina State University in Raleigh.

"We favor a market-based mechanism to set a value for carbon allowances, and a clear, federal standard that would give investors the certainty they need to plan for the future," Lewis said.

The two-day conference, attended by General Electric Co. (GE) Chairman and Chief Executive Jeff Immelt and Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) CEO Jim Rogers, among others, focused on the development of alternative fuels and conservation efforts that will create jobs and reduce the pollution blamed for global warming.

"Like any large, important, transformative project, this one is going to require a lot of money," Lewis said. "I'm guessing that's why you invited me."

Along with the cap-and-trade system, Lewis said policy makers must determine what kind of environmental incentives and regulations work best at the state level, which would help avoid a patchwork of inconsistent regulation. The private capital market also needs "a stable and predictable regulatory environment with a bias toward clean energy and the green economy," he said.

Last March, Bank of America launched a $20 billion initiative to help its customers support the growth of environmentally friendly activities and to reduce global warming. On Tuesday, he said Bank of America had created a team whose sole focus will be to identify and finance projects that support a green economy and address the nation's environmental challenges.

"There are a lot of great ideas out there," Lewis said. "This fact creates a huge risk-management challenge for banks...as a financial backer of new technologies, the bank is in the position of picking winners and losers."



Well now Kenny, isn't it the free markets that actually pick "winners and losers".

Aren't you learning that down in Southwest Florida?

If you haven't already, visit my oft-hit post Bank Of America's Ken Lewis - Socialist Hero, Shareholder Villain.

Disney Round-Up And Timeshare Marginalization

On this blog I have bandied about the terms Big Government, Big Education, Big Media, etc. quite a bit. This week it occurred to me while vacationing in Orlando that I had not yet broached Big Vacation.

Nor had I endured it much before as an adult. I did go to Disney as a child and as a teenager (1981 and 1990). Obviously, that was a long, long time ago.

At least of couple of acquaintances, upon learning that we were going to Orlando this week, scoffed. They figured me for the stereotypical parent whose kids forced him into the Disney snare. That couldn't be further from the truth. My kids (3.25 and 1.725 years of age) know hardly anything about Mickey Mouse, Donald Duck, Snow White, and Winnie the Pooh. Anyone who presumes that I, of all people, can't deprive my kids is ignorant of their target. I was abused, neglected, deprived, starved, and malpracticed upon throughout my childhood and I believe it is the very foundation of my embittered prominence. Like all ambitious parents, I aim to offer the same and so much more to my brood.

Here was our Monday-Saturday trip.

First, of all the televisions at Logan Airport, not a one was tuned to CNBC. The stock markets are melting down and apparently nobody in Boston cares. This was like my honeymoon in Hawaii where the 4-star hotels didn't even feature a financial channel on their cable lineups. But seriously, this is Boston - not a Pacific island. How can there possibly be ZERO local interest in the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ indices?

Our car rental was a Toyota 4Runner. Having never driven anything but POS American cars (Oldsmobiles, a Buick, a Ford, and some Chevys) I was blown away with the performance of a modern vehicle. It is sort of like discovering cavity-backed golf clubs after years of hitting unforgiving blades.

This trip was supposed to be a solo golf trip for me but it morphed into a plenary family vacation with the wife and two kids (I hadn't any luck trying to leave the little one home with the grandparents). And with the Disney snare, the total cost jumped from around $700 when it was just going to be me, to $3,000. Oh well. We had a blast, great weather every day, and a much needed respite from New England's six month winter.



On the first day we did one of those timeshare "seminars". My wife wanted to do it for the $170 coupon off Disney World whereas I just wanted to see what it was all about. I knew next to nothing about timeshares until I read a Forbes article about some clown who made serious ca$h in the business. For those of you that don't know, it's a pure marketing game, er slimy bamboozle replete with 13% financing on the spot. Was Shylock an animated Disney character?

We showed up at some partially built Marriott resort (one third completed) and after a complimentary (no omelet station) breakfast, a sales agent sat down with us and tried to peddle a floating vacation week there for $19,000 (plus $800 per year in "maintenance", forever!). They told us their sell-rate was 20%, a number that I didn't believe for a second (meaning that 20% of attendees end up buying a timeshare - if that were indeed the case, it wouldn't have taken five years to fill up a mere 300 units of this particular resort, now would it?).

The sales agent starts out slowly: names, kids, careers, favorite colors, etc. She inquires as to your dream destinations. Paris? Hawaii? Myrtle Beach? I provided her thoroughly unsatisfactory answers. At this point in my life, I simply don't even think about this stuff. My present dream vacation would be going to the bathroom unhurried for a week. Or, not having to eat my meals hovered over the counter. With two small children, I just want a break (like a solo golf trip) and it doesn't have to be in some exotic locale. The reason the sales agent pushes this tack is that later on she wants to sell you on "swapping" your newly purchased Orlando timeshare for a week at another Marriott "Vacation Club" that may be just about anywhere on the globe.

While she was out giving us the tour of the premises, she asked,

Agent - Look around. What do you think this will be like [without the cranes and backhoes] when all 900 units are completed?

CaptiousNut - I think it will be empty.

Here, my wife almost busted a gut trying to hold her laughter in. The personality-deficient agent was discombobulated by my response and needed a moment to cue up the scripted sales pitch again.

The room they showed us was really, really nice. It was a 1,250 square foot, 2 bedroom suite (with a pull out couch). It had two balconies, a beautiful kitchen, and came fully furnished. There was nothing not to like - except perhaps the price.

When we got back to the office, the agent sat us in front of a computer and tried to sell us on the math. She started punching in numbers to demonstrate how much money a budding family like ours would spend on a one week vacation over the next 20 years. Her assumptions were as follows:

• 20 years
• a 7 night stay
• $250 per night
• 12% annual hotel inflation

The number that popped onto the screen, as my total vacation outlay for the next 20 years, was about $85,000.

I laughed in her face and made her change the "annual hotel inflation" assumption to 2%. That slashed her 85k number down to $40,000. Then I scolded her:

CaptiousNut - On one hand you tell me that the $800 annual maintenance number won't rise that much, if at all, and on the other hand you want me to believe that hotel inflation will be 12% ANNUALLY, FOR TWENTY FULL YEARS?!?!?!?!

(12% inflation means that your $200 hotel room in 2008 will approach $1,900 PER NIGHT in the year 2028.)

Then I had to feign some genuine disgust - just to make this woman feel sufficient embarrassment for having her pathetic ruse exposed. There's a whale of a difference between 85k and 40k. It really upsets me that they throw this junk at less Captious tourists from middle America. Go read that Forbes article I already linked to. In it, timeshare king David Siegel has the cohones to brag that his customers are the "Johnny Lunch-Bucket crowd," who "shop at Wal-Mart."

I grabbed a pen and did some quick math. The fact is, given all the Marriott "points" and swap-ability to luxurious resorts worldwide (e.g. Hawaii, Lake Tahoe, Rome,...) even with the fuzzy math and resale uncertainty, this timeshare did make a little bit of financial sense.

The math ran like this. Assume that you shell out 40k over twenty years for vacation. Obviously that money is gone. But if you do this timeshare, you'll spend 20 years of maintenance - say between 20-25 grand for your vacations instead.

Ergo, even if the value of your time share goes to near zero, you'll still break even. If it holds its value at 19k, you will have saved at least $15,000. If it appreciates, you'll have done really well.

NOW HOLD ON.

For one thing, timeshares can be worth less than $0 - as evidenced by the one my parents paid $5,000 for ten years ago. Today, there are no bids at all for it. In fact, they would have to PAY $4,000 to get out of this liability now. That's right, the value went from +$5,000 to -$4,000!!! I sure as hell better not inherit it!!!

Also, the math I posted above does ignore the financing of a timeshare purchase. If you don't have the cash to buy it outright, interest charges over time erode much of the "savings" - particularly at 13% per annum.

But here is where the whole "sell" falls apart.

Note that anytime you compound something over a long period of time (say 20 years), extrapolations are extremely sensitive to initial conditions. Note how the total outlay halved when I made the agent reduce the hotel inflation rate to 2%.

The other condition - impossible to adjust on their model - was a reduction from a 7 day trip to only 5 days. Look at it this way, the increase from 5 to 7 represents an increase of 40%! Increasing a key variable by that much helps create the unrealistic financial comparison that's oh so integral to the slimy sell.

Our current trip was only 5 days and it well-served our purposes. Why should I budget in a longer one, every year, for the next twenty? Because it makes financial sense? How so?

Consider attending a professional baseball game where domestic macro-brews in wax cups are retailing for the ridiculous price of $7 apiece or three for $20. It may make financial sense to buy three instead of one - BUT not if you only needed/wanted one or two beers.

The timeshare scam essentially forces people (the wealthy "Wal-Mart" crowd) into a longer vacation than they might otherwise purchase. It also forces people into buying nicer accommodations than they probably need. A 1,250 square foot suite is nice but who really cares what the room looks like when you're out all day? The only destination where one might spend less time in their room than Orlando is Las Vegas.

I will say this, if you are going to spend at least 7 days on a family vacation, annually, and demand a room as nice as these Marriott suites...THEN yes, it's a decent deal for you. Because otherwise, rooms that nice will cost you at least $300-$450 per night just about anywhere. Think of it econo-intuitively: if you can guarantee Marriott a defined amount of vacation expenditure - annually, ad infinitum - then they can return to you some of that dedicated capital via below-market prices.

The sales agent tried her darned best but couldn't get me to buy anything. She eventually brought over the heavy artillery, i.e. her manager, who offered me "the first year maintenance free" and "110,000 extra" Marriott points if I signed right then and there. My wife stiff-armed the duo,

Mrs C-Nut - I don't buy a pair of shoes without thinking about it for a while, I am certainly not writing a check for nineteen grand based on a 90 minute sale pitch.

Remember, my equal-half just wanted the Disney discount and was getting quite annoyed at how "polite" I was acting throughout. Believe it!!!

The manager tried one last push. She asked where we were staying and at what cost. The answer - Holiday Inn's Nickelodeon Suites at $150 a night.

FrustratedManager - "Wow,...that's a good price[silence]"

We told her it was through a corporate discount with my wife's employer. Note the other variable you couldn't satisfactorily change on the 20-year vacation cost analysis was hotel room rate. I think it went from $150 to $250 per night. The intermediate point of $200 is, of course, 33.33% higher than $150 and conveniently impossible to insert into the model. Go figure.

As our corporate discount demonstrates, other deals abound. Even more competitive with these shady timeshares is the best deal of them all - staying with one of our many Floridian friends for free!!!

I ran the timeshare offer by one of said friends who happens to be a real estate agent in Naples. He laughed:

NaplesRealEstateGuy - Nineteen grand plus $800 per year for a week? You can rent a huge house in Naples right now with a pool for $1,400 FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH.

I say stay away from timeshares and keep your vacation options completely open.

Okay, let's move on.

After the timeshare thingamajig, we went to Animal Kingdom. It really was quite forgettable.

Wednesday, I played golf with my buddy at the Country Club of Orlando while my wife took the kids to the hotel pool. Remember, it was supposed to be MY golf trip. That night we headed to Downtown Disney and dined at the Rainforest Cafe (which I would never recommend to anyone with discerning taste buds).

Thursday was dedicated to Magic Kingdom. Now beware there's a whole lot of enviro-brainwashing going on at these parks (esp. Animal Kingdom). Here was a sign I had to stare at while waiting for the Jungle Safari boat ride.

Magic Kingdom was okay for my little ones. The classic rides haven't changed in at least 25 years but that's quite alright. I even remembered the detailed hairy leg of that pirate (of the Caribbean) that the boat passes under from my first visit in 1981. This timelessness reminded me of NYC's Museum of Natural History. From reading Catcher in the Rye back in 8th grade, it was clear many of the museum's exhibits hadn't changed a lick from when the book was written (1951) to when I saw the very same ones (1980).

For some reason, I didn't find the park food as expensive as both I remembered and as everyone kvetches about. Lunch with a drink was $9-$10 - approximately what we pay everywhere else for the meal outside of McDonalds. I remember my mother appalled at a $6 Magic Kingdom hamburger back in 1981 - if it was only $8 in 2008, then I am not so out of line assuming 2% annual hotel inflation, now am I? (Prepared food and tourism are, for the most part, highly competitive products whose wide substitution possibilities always retard price inflation.)

On Friday, we used the last of our discounted Disney tickets at Typhoon Lagoon - one of Disney's water parks. The sun broke through and my kids loved it more than the Kingdoms. They're still a little young to enjoy most of the rides.

That night we ventured to Universal's City Walk. We espied an "Emeril" restaurant and popped in. Usually, his places are booked solid on weekend nights but we lucked out and braved an expensive dinner with our two kids and their 45-minute panic threshold. The meal was phenomenal. It better have been as my rib eye cost $46. It was just as good as NOLA, one of Emeril's New Orleans joints that we hit years ago.

Off the kids menu, I ordered a $16.50 filet for my kids to split. For the record, I didn't have my first filet mignon until I was probably 22 years old. My spoiled kids will forever think "pot roast" a dog food.

Vacation Week

This week I am taking the family to Orlando. As such, posting will be light.

UPDATE - Obviously I forgot to post this last weekend. Please accept my apology - there's a whole lot of stuff that gets "undone" when you're chasing around little kids. I should have a nice post up sometime tomorrow.

CaptiousNut Revealed

Ten years ago, one of the things I used to do after work (trading pit) to decompress was ice skate at UPenn's Class of 1928 rink.

One of these Wednesday afternoons some precocious little girl (10 years old?) zipped up to me on the ice and exclaimed, "Hey, you look like Timothy McVeigh!"

Stunned, I said, "Who?" She sped off and lapped me. I hollered as she flew past me again,

CaptiousNut - How do you know who Timothy McVeigh is???

LittleGirl - What [patronizingly]...I read Newsweek.

Well, there you go!

I must say, he is was quite a handsome lad.