For many years I blogged on the coming/arriving housing disaster...
I hate to beat this dead horse myself so here's Mark Hanson with an update:
Finally, it is extremely important to remember that ever since the mortgage and housing crisis began every last time a "movement" to artificially stimulate mortgage and housing gains momentum with the media, sell side, banks, NAR, builders and government it is only aimed at one thing…that is preventing a disaster lying directly ahead with a quick fix to patch the gaping hole in the side of the ship via kicking the can, protecting the banks from resi whole loan and MBS price discovery, giving something to millions of delinquent borrowers for nothing, and getting votes. None of these things will promote a sustanable recovery in housing. The only true fix for this housing market is time. And it always leads to disappointment.There's plenty more in his report so click the link above.
The most recent ‘movement’ to legislate easier bank lending standards; giving everybody in America with a mortgage something for nothing in the form of an insta-refi; principal balance reduction modifications in hopes of avoiding foreclosures and freeing up homeowners to re-buy (won’t help); and continued foreclosure prevention through things such as bulk REO sales with usage provisions and the GSE’s renting REO (crushing the independent investor and cannibalizing the all important first time buyer cohort) — will end in disappointment as well. Heck, without distressed sales over a third of activity would disappear making macro housing even weaker.
This confluence of panic-bred stimulus lunacy is a perfect recipe for a disaster in the mortgage and housing sectors that will push out an ultimate bottom longer than anybody, include us, is forecasting.
Realize the next disaster I've been warning y'all about is - schools and college tuition!
Rather than them driving ME into debt with nothing to show for it but worthless diplomas....I'm trying to raise kids who can pay MY country club dues; send ME on cruises; etc.