Showing posts with label fidelity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fidelity. Show all posts

Monday, June 29, 2009

Harry Lange - Our Best Contrary Indicator?


Last May, Fidelity Magellan fund manager piled into banking stocks. He got killed.

Read prior posts Skim Biz Update - Fidelity Investments and the follow-up Marginalizing Analysts.

Now behold the nugget I just unearthed today:

Fidelity's Magellan Fund Boosts Stakes In BofA, Other Banks

BOSTON (Dow Jones)--Fidelity Investments' Magellan mutual fund appeared to significantly boost its stake in Bank of America Corp. (BAC) in May while it added to its Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) position, according to new records released by the mutual-fund giant.

The fund - a one-time industry bellwether that lost some luster last year amid backfiring financial bets - also boosted its holdings in Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) last month, according to Fidelity's data.

The $22.4-billion Magellan fund has gone back and forth with Bank of America over the last several months. It significantly boosted its stake in the bank last September, for example, then substantially reduced its holdings of the bank months later.

More recently, Magellan has jumped back in. At the end of May, the market value of the fund's stake in Bank of America was $398.6 million, according to the new Fidelity records, making the bank the fund's tenth-largest holding. The value is up more than eight-fold from the amount reported for the end of April.

The bank's stock price rose 26.2% in May, indicating Magellan manager Harry Lange bought at an opportune time. The stock price has climbed further in June.

Goldman was already a big Magellan holding at the end of April, when it was the ninth-largest company in the fund. Goldman moved up to the number six spot in May, though, as the rise in market value climbed nearly 35% to $475 million. Because the stock rose 12.5% on the month, the sharper rise in market value indicates a beefed-up position in the bank.

Among other financial holdings, the value of Magellan's stake in Wells Fargo rose 80% to $349.4 million at the end of May compared with the end of April. The stock rose 27.4% last month, also indicating an expanded position.

The only question now is *how long before my next Harry Lange follow-up post*???

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Fidelity - A Mess



Here's Fidelity Investments' Chairman Ned Johnson the other day:

"Until the end of August, before the economic storm arrived, Fidelity’s results were on schedule," Chairman Edward C. "Ned" Johnson III, wrote in a letter to shareholders accompanying the report. Then in September, "we entered a downdraft in stock prices which hasn’t been seen since the ‘30s," Johnson wrote.

So it's all the market's fault?

And here's his zinger that got him atop DrudgeReport.com yesterday:
"We can only hope that the government’s cure doesn’t further sicken the patient," Johnson wrote. "During the ‘30s, Congress -- with guidance from the president and the same kind of good intentions -- shifted the country’s cash flow away from productive business to government make-work projects, which most likely prolonged the Great Depression."

Okay. Now, usually I'm all for a good little swipe at *Big Government* but this statement, from this man, is a screaming deflection.

The fact is, Fidelity is a disastrous operation. It's bloated, jurassic, and severely underperforming.

Here on the South Shore of Boston, seemingly everyone I meet works for Fidelity. This local sub-population, they are by no means Morons, but let me just tell you, they make gobs of money.

And for what?

You know how it is - in good times, quacks and hucksters skate by, but when the going gets tough....they get exposed big time.

That's the story of Fidelity right now. A turbulent market has exposed their well-concealed incompetence. Fidelity has proven to be nothing more than a giant bull market skimming operation. Look at their latest sophistical propaganda that tries to persuade its ravaged clients (and new suckers) to *keep buying*. Heck, the numbers it uses are hardly compelling:
Fidelity nicknamed one of the market timers the "bear-market dodger." After the start of the downturn in March 2000, for instance, he shifted new contributions to cash, beginning in April 2000.

A second market timer, the "bear-market refugee," shifted new contributions once the bear market was official — hit the 20% down threshold — to cash starting in March 2001.

The third timer was dubbed the "doomsday capitulator." He shifted new money to cash at the market's low point in October 2002.

The three timers resumed investing in stocks as of January 2004. In the real market, that was when investors' cash weightings fell back to their long-term averages as investors returned to stocks, Fidelity says. Going forward, each portfolio got the bogey's 10.2% average yearly gains from 1927 to August 2008.

January 2004 was also the point in time when Fidelity measured how each strategy had fared.

After plowing in $34,000, the stay-the-course investor's account balance was $33,502. That was bigger than the other three investors' by 0.4%, 5.1% and 5.6%, respectively.

Still, Fidelity says if the account exists for another 30 years, stay-the-course investor's $617,331 balance is $2,671 more than dodger's, $31,380 more than refugee's, and $34,752 more than capitulator's.

A difference of 30k, over 30 years? That's supposed to be significant?

Note the so-called dodgers got to sleep at night - a point totally unquantified, totally unaddressed by the buy-buy-buy propaganda.

Furthermore, why don't we recalculate the numbers INCLUDING *buying* in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008?!?!?!



Yeah I don't think those particular dollar-cost averages would behoove the ridiculous propaganda....we'll just leave them out and keep it quiet.

Everything I hear, read, or witness about Fidelity these days just screams incompetence, AND stupidity.

It wasn't bad enough that Fidelity got its clocked clean last year buying financials, apparently it went bargain hunting again late in 2008:
Fidelity Investments, the world’s largest mutual-fund company, more than doubled its stake in Citigroup Inc. in the fourth quarter, ahead of a 63 percent slide in the stock this year.

Fidelity also added shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. in the fourth quarter. JPMorgan shares are down 35 percent this year; Wells Fargo shares are down 59 percent. Fidelity owns 4 percent of JPMorgan and 5.2 percent of Wells Fargo.

One local Fidelity guy, an analyst or something, told me back in September to load up on the *best* stock on Wall Street. He said to buy Starwood Hotels. Since his recommendation in September, the stock has fallen 69%, from 37.00 to 11.42 today!

Why exactly is he making 600k (or more!) per year and I am sitting at home flipping odd lots?

Well probably because the PMs, the portfolio managers, at Fidelity fancy his useless research, or his personality.

Out of the dozen or so Fidelity employees I've met since I moved to this region, I've yet to hear of one of them getting laid off. I'm telling you, they make GOBS of money.

That company is in deep denial and won't bite the bullet until after another nasty *down year* for the markets.

Firing all their analysts and all their *mouthpieces* - as they should do - would be to admit that the entire company is, and has been, a fraud.

Though, in Ned Johnson's defense, this fraud was fueled by the laziness and stupidity of passive investors.

Mrs. C-Nut hates it when I bash asset managers. She sees nothing philosophically wrong with an industry that skims money from unsuspecting, deserving Morons.

I look at it egotistically. There's no way I could spend my time and energy fine-tuning investment strategies and marketing schemes that demand *victims* - just so I could live in big house, in a desirable neighborhood, and drive a nice car (to the train station!).

See also - Marginalizing Analysts and Skim Biz Update - Fidelity Investments.

Thursday, February 05, 2009

Marginalizing Analysts



From yesterday's Boston Globe:

Fidelity layoffs slated to start

Round is likely to include FMR cuts
Fidelity Investments is expected to initiate a round of previously disclosed layoffs this week, according to industry executives who have been informed by company insiders, and the job cuts will likely include personnel from the company's FMR Co. investment unit.


The FMR Co. division includes analysts and managers who run Fidelity's well-known mutual funds, and it had been shielded from past layoffs after the company spent heavily to beef up its stock-picking capabilities. Crowley said the company now has about 500 analysts. One executive recruiter who has spoken with company insiders, speaking on condition of anonymity because Fidelity did not authorize the comments, said positions at FMR Co. will be eliminated this week.


Eric Kobren, publisher of an independent newsletter for Fidelity investors, said any cuts to FMR could indicate Fidelity's spending on new staff hasn't always paid off. "They've got to be very sensitive to the fact of how many analysts add value to the process. They spent hundreds of millions of dollars improving their staff, and the fund performance numbers have not necessary improved in line with the investment," Kobren said.


Fidelity's flagship Magellan fund started 2008 at $86.96 and ended the year DOWN a whopping 50% to $43.51 per share.

They pay their analysts and researchers a sh*tload of money - and for what?

(The S&P 500 was down only 41%!)

If you read my other post you'll see what a complete Moron they have captaining this sinking ship - Skim Biz Update - Fidelity Investments.

This clown, Harry Lange, piled into my biggest shorts in September - BAC, WFC, and JPM.

And here's what they've done over the last 6 months:

BAC is down 88%!

WFC is down 52%!

JPM is down 46%!

Fidelity skims like .7% off each equity fund to, I guess, *create jobs*. They have about $1.3 trillion in assets. So let's say they skim about $500 million off (some monies are in lower yielding - for the firm - bond funds) every single year. What exactly has all that *research* wrought?

Eric Kobren, quoted above, wonders how much value additional analysts add to the funds' performances. I wonder, check that I KNOW, that not even one analyst, as they've hired them, constipated MBAs and whatnot, adds ANY VALUE. There's no *adding* anywhere in this Fidelity narrative - just subtraction and division.

Over the years I've met many analysts and read who knows how many *reports*. I can't say I've ever been impressed or edified by any of these overpaid clowns.

It's not *research*, it's marketing. These big mutual fund companies aren't anything other than an elaborate, sophisticated scheme to exploit the naiveté of the masses.

Now, we can begin a whole new discussion about whether or not Fools and their money *should*/*will always* be separated. That's fine.

But let's get the premise about what these skimmers are really doing, let's get that straight first.