January Update

Homes for sale in my hometown Newton, MA. From Realtor.com,

April 26, 2006 704

May 18, 2006 724

June 21, 2006 776

August 15, 2006 685

September 12, 2006 673

November 21, 2006 607

December 18th, 2006 476

January 3rd, 2007 388

Wow. Listings continue to crater. (I predict this will be the bottom for listings.)

Some of the dip is likely due to seasonality, but it hardly explains the entire magnitude. And the drastically lowered supply hasn't induced so much as a fleeting price uptick.

My worst case scenario continues to play out for real estate. The market is staying high for a long time, sucking more and more first time buyers in. As I mentioned in my last real estate post, mortgage rates have been dropping since June - over 70 basis points. Increasing purchasing power has been unable to stem the abrupt sales deceleration or price softening.

Many people insist that the market has already corrected significantly and that "the worst is over". While enthusiasm may have abated, PRICES ARE STILL WAY TOO HIGH. Mind you the overall economy has been very strong this year as well. What do you think will happen to house prices when any or all of this inevitably occurs: rates rise, the economy slows, stock market dips, oil rises, etc?

Denial is always the first stage...

Now take a look at the 2006 housing predictions and eventual realities from the National Association of Realtors, Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Home Builders, and the California Association of Realtors.









Note just about all of their housing market predictions fell short even though their economic predictions underestimated the strength of the economy.

I am fully aware that these are positively biased advocacy groups but bear in mind their predictions are qualified by interest rate and unemployment data.

I want to reiterate my theory:

The dominant variable for house price prediction is PRICE MOMENTUM.

Right now, the real estate market is a massive barge drifting downstream. What, does the unemployment rate have to go to 2% for prices to uptick? There's nary a tugboat in sight...

Sorry, I was about to move on from this tedious subject but recently new homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises announced its earning results. They sucked.

Its earnings were down 70% from 2005 to 2006 ($7.16 vs. $2.14) which to me isn't even the worst news. (These companies play games by aggressively "writing down" land, I cynically think it's to make future earnings appear better).

The worst news is no matter how much Wall Street or homebuilders reduce their expectations, reality keeps arriving much worse than they feared. Hovnanian is reducing its earnings forecast for 2007 from a previously announced $2.50 down to anywhere from $1.50-$2.00 per share.

A mere three months ago, the already several-times lowered Wall Street earnings forecast for 2007 was at $3.29.



Now I am not saying that HOV will lower estimates again or won't meet the "new" forecast. In fact I find these new construction builders to be a wholly inadequate proxy for the larger housing market. I just want to highlight how prevalent the housing market denial is. This bear market narrative is a familiar and crystal clear story to me; I guess because as a trader, I have owned more than my fair share of rapidly depreciating assets. The first leg down is always "unexpected" and "healthy" and it invariably occurs within a worry-free context. Today the benign backdrop is a strong economy and bargain basement interest rates. Not until after the assets have already taken a beating does the bad news crash the party, proliferate, and cause the much nastier second leg of the implosion.



Here's some trenchant evidence of the Religious Right's stranglehold on America:

37 Percent of U.S. Births Out of Wedlock, an all-time high.

Consider that with the prevailing 50% divorce rate and the thorough skankification of television. Anyone who believes in the Religious Right's omnipotence remains thoroughly ignorant of history. Put in it's historical context, this really is a Post-Christian Era for Western Civilization. Separating the "church" from the "state" has proven a healthy move for both entities. Unfortunately the state has been hijacked by another creed. Statists today engage in the same fascist thought control, censorship, and insidious servitude typified by Louis XIV's Catholic France.



There's talk amongst ascendant Congressmen of making college tuition tax deductible. If they do this, tuition prices will simply continue skyrocketing. The mortgage interest deduction and the health insurance tax deductions have only made homes and medical care more expensive, so why do the pols think tax deductibility will help make college more affordable?

Do the pols know the deduction won't work and advocate for the econo-illiterate populist measure anyway?

Or are they just too stupid to even see the empirical evidence against their proposal?

Either way, that's one sad set of lawmakers we have.

While Harvard economist Greg Mankiw won't stop complaining about the distortionary economics of agricultural subsidies I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for him to inveigh against making tuitions deductible, a subsidy that would only increase his paycheck. Tuition could cost ten grand, fifty grand, or one hundred grand and academic economists would still insist the money well spent.

Speaking of agricultural subsidies...

What is the government's solution to oil inflation?



Well, it's inflating other vital commodities like corn and gasoline.



According to this website,

The Klan had much to do with the early gun control laws in America. Many of the current gun control laws stemmed from the fear of armed and independent minorities. After all, even a few determined (and armed) people can stop a Klan raid or make committing massacres like the 1923 Rosewood events too risky for the perpetrators.

Now query this - Is abortion racist?

Minority women constitute only about 13% of the female population (age 15-44) in the United States, but they underwent approximately 36% of the abortions.

Of course one could easily argue that government schools are racist. They are poorly run and disproportionately attended by minorities. What else is needed for the racism equation?

So when will race-baiters like Jesse Jackson start inveighing against public schools, abortion, and gun-control?

Haha. They won't. Remember, Big Government socialism comes first, then all of the sub-agendas like identity politics, environmentalism, etc.

Conclusion - Historians one hundred years from now will have a heck of a time figuring out what "racism" meant in our day.

Speaking of minorities and public schools, be sure to watch The Wire on HBO. The season has concluded but can be viewed OnDemand. This year the Baltimore-based show highlights the realities of public schooling in urban drug-infested areas. Almost needless to say, such schools are scary places for all involved.

ESPN's Bill Simmons says The Wire is one of the most underrated shows on television. (I don't know why I am quoting that tool....he should be quoting me!)

Check out Harvard/Microsoft geek Steve Ballmer below.



Boston just passed a law mandating Green regulations for all new buildings over 50,000 square feet. Here is the comment I left on the above hyperlinked blog,

When the city with the highest business costs in the country (200th place according to Forbes) decides to heap more onerous expenses on job creators, all that will cause is more people moving to less “green” cities. After all, everyone has to work.

Boston simply isn’t economically wealthy enough to indulge in environmental fetishes.

Morons are always criticizing, fighting, and saddling with regulation new construction - be it commercial or residential. One key point that the Naysayers miss is that newer buildings are much more energy efficient than existing structures. Old homes and buildings kill utility bills in both the winter and the summer. They have drafty windows, inferior insulation, a dearth of ceiling fans, and antique heating and cooling systems. Environmentalists, or should I say Watermelons (green on the outside, Commi red on the inside) may get, two big green buildings built downtown, but their larger portfolio of regulations keeps thousands upon thousands of drafty oil burning shacks in the housing stock.

Similarly the Landmarks Preservation Commission in New York City also rapes the environment by preventing the modernization of buildings (and consequently drives up the cost of living for everyone as well).



There's no short list of negatives to living in Boston. Consider the amount of daylight in the following cities this time of year.

9 hours 11 minutes in Boston, Massachusetts.

9 hours 52 minutes in Charlotte, North Carolina.

10 hours 32 minutes in Delray Beach, Florida.

My friends in Delray Beach (recent New Jersey emigrants) enjoy an hour and twenty-one minutes more sunlight than us miserable denizens of Boston.

The sun is not only out less up here, it takes a lower path in the sky so it depressingly never gets really bright - that is of course when it deigns to come out at all. Incidentally, that is probably the only thing I learned in astronomy class at UPenn.

It was a "gut class" in which I did miserably. I skipped class too often and actually flunked the midterm - likely the only F I ever received. There was a lab report assigned that had to be done at the University Observatory (on a cloudless night). The syllabus stated that if it was done "before Spring Break" it would count towards 10% of your grade. Me and a buddy who were taking this class procrastinated some and didn't get the lab done before Spring Break. We came back from Florida to this announcement from Professor Shen,

"Those of you that didn't get the lab done just lost 10 points off your final grade..."

The class went into uproar (at least those who hadn't done the lab yet). We all just assumed that not doing the lab early would just shift the grading weight to the final (or midterm exam). These are the hazards of taking classes taught by ESL professors.

So with an F on the midterm and 10 additional points gone, I had to, and did, ace the final just to salvage a C+ in the class. Hey, at least I learned about the southern arc of winter sun!

I wonder if Professor Shen translated the directions for this noodle manufacturer. (Click to enlarge).



Here's a funny and revealing headline story from Reuters,

European Socialists eager to work with U.S. Democrats

Why aren't they eager to work with Republicans?

And Hillary Clinton is playing hard-to-get with a French Socialist leader...

Big Government nannies are now insisting that the Obese should have health warnings on their clothes. Personally I am against almost all warning labels on products. But if they are going to be mandated I strongly feel that newspapers should warn readers that consuming their product can make one ignorant, stupid, depressed, poor, and will embarrass them to no end when they try to converse with the informed.

Vienna to get gender-equal traffic and exit signs

Female exit signs and pictograms in bathrooms featuring a man, rather than a woman, changing a baby, will be introduced at City Hall to start with, the statement said.



Some loser male student at Clark University wanted to room with a female in the dorm but the school wouldn't let him. According to the local arm of the New York Times,

Mr. Chang researched the issue extensively and submitted a 70-page proposal.

Seventy pages? Can you say LOSER?

Buoyed by his victory and blooming ACLU street cred, the idiot went national, starting www.genderblind.org/. From that site,

They all, however, call for the option for any two students to room together, in mutual agreement, without restriction based on biological sex or gender identification.

Gender-neutral housing policies provide options for transgender students, students in the process of discovering their gender identity, gay or bisexual students who feel uncomfortable with rooming with members of the same sex, intersex students who do not wish to be identified by any sex, and students who feel that they would cooperate better with a roommate of the opposite sex. The NSGC believes that current policies, without gender-neutral options, reflect a time of institutionalized heterosexism that marginalizes countless students today.

"Institutionalized heterosexism"? "Intersex" students?

If anyone instituted heterosexuality in humans it most likely was Father Nature.

How long before some college boy comes back to the dorm drunk and has non-consensual sex with his female roommate? That ought to be a nice windfall for the victim's attorney.



This has been widely disseminated but it merits another mention.

Incoming House intelligence chief botches easy intel quiz

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Rep. Silvestre Reyes of Texas, who incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has tapped to head the Intelligence Committee when the Democrats take over in January, failed a quiz of basic questions about al Qaeda and Hezbollah, two of the key terrorist organizations the intelligence community has focused on since the September 11, 2001 attacks.



Now we have a nasal spray to thwart the obesity epidemic. Supposedly we can't crave what we don't smell. Medicare will probably approve billions for the nasal spray even though a simple clothespin will surely beat the spray in "blind taste tests".



Flatulence, not turbulence forces plane landing in Nashville

American Flight 1053, from Washington Reagan National Airport and bound for Dallas/Fort Worth, made an emergency landing here after passengers reported smelling struck matches, said Lynne Lowrance, a spokeswoman for the Nashville International Airport Authority.

The plane landed safely. The FBI, Transportation Safety Administration and airport authority responded to the emergency, Lowrance said.

The passengers and five crew members were brought off the plane, together with all the luggage, to go through security checks again. Bomb-sniffing dogs found spent matches.

The FBI questioned a passenger who admitted she struck the matches in an attempt to conceal body odor, Lowrance said. The woman lives near Dallas and has a medical condition.

The flight took off again, but the woman was not allowed back on the plane.

"American has banned her for a long time," Lowrance said.



Snake king Ali Khan dies from cobra bite

If one plays with fire he is eventually going to get burned. Throw that story in with Steve Irwin and Roy Horn.

Paper Money Discriminates Against The Blind. The government has been ordered by a compassionate judge to make "braille bills". Next up for the ACLU is most assuredly the nasty prejudice of iPods against the deaf...

I am no fan of Thanksgiving. Turkey is boring, traffic is brutal, and the holiday is too close to Christmas. What a waste!

But I am not hijacking the holiday to instill self-loathing in little children like this teacher.

Teacher Bill Morgan walks into his third-grade class wearing a black Pilgrim hat made of construction paper and begins snatching up pencils, backpacks and glue sticks from his pupils. He tells them the items now belong to him because he "discovered" them.



When Massachusetts' newly elected governor, Deval Patrick, was running for office he had to debate Kerry Healey and her proposal to immediately cut the state income tax from 5.3% to 5%. Patrick said such a tax cut wouldn't "work", it would just shift more of a burden on "our cities and towns". This is essentially a socialist's stock debating response to any and all tax cuts. To them, cutting taxes has never in the history of mankind been desirable or "effective".

Both of Patrick's gubernatorial opponents, Healey and Christy Mihos, campaigned to remove the tolls west of route 128 on the Mass Pike. Though Patrick demurred on this proposal, nonetheless the notion got some legs from the election. But note again the tired argument put forth to keep the tolls in tact,

BOSTON --Eliminating tolls on the Massachusetts Turnpike west of Route 128 could force up tolls on the road's Boston extension and harbor tunnels, according to an inspector general's review of legal and financial opinions to be presented to the Turnpike board Wednesday.

Inspector General Gregory Sullivan said those legal and financial opinions, which he reviewed, show that taking down the western tolls would mean sharper toll increases for anyone using the portion of the Turnpike from Route 128 to Boston or Logan Airport.

Under one scenario, cars traveling from Logan Airport to Weston would see tolls jump from $5 to $7.31, an increase of $2.31 per trip, Sullivan said in a letter to legislative leaders and Turnpike board members dated Tuesday.

The increase would be needed to because the Turnpike would have to raise roughly $30 million more in tolls to meet its bond obligations, according to Sullivan.

Anytime there is a budget crunch or a fleeting moment of taxpayer restlessness, the socialists trot out the same arguments and innuendo. The country is broke? Well then we shouldn't stop spending, we should instead tax the rich. They must not be paying their fair share. Thou shall approve more spending (i.e. bonds) for education or we will cut out high school sports. Not only does that hit parents and students where it counts, there isn't a union to defend sports from such venomous threats. Note they never threaten to remove "vital" administrators or librarians. Cut out the Western Mass tolls? Well if you do that Eastern Mass (Boston) will have to bear the burden - because there is just no way us pols will ever cut wasteful spending. Seven dollar tolls from Weston? Well that happens to be the richest town in Massachusetts; so find it curious that socialists have incorporated that town's misery into their agitprop. It just happens to be right at Route 128 and hence the steepest toll if Western tolls should be eliminated.

The masterstroke has been to make everyone dependent on the government in one fashion or another: public education, student loans, Medicare, Social Security, or working for a government agency. Surely you and your dear friends and family have lips firmly planted on a government teat. Any proposed tax decrease or reform is invariably met with strategically placed threats to reduce spending (no more milk!) or increase taxes elsewhere. The game plan remains to inure voters to high taxes and wasteful spending so that the socialists can run up the score - no timeouts will be allowed. Big Media ostensibly referees, but does so with the probity of Soviet Olympic judges. They refuse to ever report on the wanton squandering of tax revenue - and hardly for lack of material. (Only "Iraq" is a waste of money.)



Science told: hands off gay sheep

SCIENTISTS are conducting experiments to change the sexuality of "gay" sheep in a programme that critics fear could pave the way for breeding out homosexuality in humans.

The technique being developed by American researchers adjusts the hormonal balance in the brains of homosexual rams so that they are more inclined to mate with ewes.

It raises the prospect that pregnant women could one day be offered a treatment to reduce or eliminate the chance that their offspring will be homosexual. Experts say that, in theory, the "straightening" procedure on humans could be as simple as a hormone supplement for mothers-to-be, worn on the skin like an anti-smoking nicotine patch.

The research, at Oregon State University in the city of Corvallis and at the Oregon Health and Science University in Portland, has caused an outcry. Martina Navratilova, the lesbian tennis player who won Wimbledon nine times, and scientists and gay rights campaigners in Britain have called for the project to be abandoned.

Navratilova defended the "right" of sheep to be gay. She said: “How can it be that in the year 2006 a major university would host such homophobic and cruel experiments?" She said gay men and lesbians would be "deeply offended" by the social implications of the tests.

Approximately one ram in 10 prefers to mount other rams rather than mate with ewes, reducing its value to a farmer. Initially, the publicly funded project aimed to improve the productivity of herds.

So let me get this straight. There's no outrage over aborting fetuses that may have Down Syndrome but prescreening out the homosexual gene is "cruel"? By this logic no scientists will be allowed to find the obesity gene because it would be "deeply offensive", "cruel", and trample on the "right" to be fat.

When will these people realize that the right to be gay, fat, and retarded approximates a "right to life"?

Now I have mentioned this a few times...

A report card on youths' weight irks Cape parents

BARNSTABLE -- Almost 140 Hyannis Elementary School students went home last week with letters implying that they might be at risk for becoming underweight or overweight after a height-and-weight screening.

The school nurse, Stacey Shakel, said the letter had been meant as an education tool, not an insult.

In addition, state law requires that a school notify parents of children who are overweight or underweight, or who may be at risk of becoming so. About half of the Hyannis school's students got letters.

Elliott's third-grade daughter does not think she's overweight, Elliott said, adding that reading the letter upset her. "I don't agree with the policy," she said, "but if you're going to do it, don't send [the letter] home with the kids."

The Barnstable school district conducts height and weight screening on students from kindergarten through eighth grade. Superintendent Patricia Grenier said that the district could not afford to mail all the letters, and that in the end there's a payoff.

"Healthy children learn better," she said.

Hah! Did you get that? Fat kids can't read, write, or add.

In the end there is a "payoff"? Yeah, government schools are veritable founts of "payoffs" these days.

Anyone that thinks "unhealthy" kids can't learn hasn't intellect enough to be anywhere in the educational field - no less a superintendent. Anyone who's ever opened a history book knows that "unhealthy" people have risen to become some of the greatest achievers of Western civilization.

They were teaching "nutrition" in government schools twenty years ago when I was a inmate student and look at the burgeoning obesity epidemic since then. Where was the "payoff" for that?

Devil's Advocate - Well, maybe the epidemic would be worse if they hadn't started the education back then...

That's a tired excuse for failed Moronic measures. File it under the IF, COULDA, SHOULDA, WOULDA...

When arguing with Morons, never let them get away with this tactic. To them, poverty would be worse without welfare, we could fall behind Japan China if more money isn't spent on education, the elderly would be eating dog food if we reform Social Security.

In a nanosecond I found the following link and pic below.



Now I don't recommend arguing theoreticals with anyone, no less Morons, BUT for entertainment purposes one could use this tactic to dominate a debate.

Well how about this - Terrorism WOULD be a lot worse if we didn't fight it?

Or - A dollar tax on gasoline WOULD force the elderly to live on Alpo?

Those may not be the best examples but it's important nevertheless for a professional Marginalizer to be able to both recognize and exercise sophist debating tactics.



John Gatto introduced to me to an animal I was previously ignorant of - the utopist. Though an infinitely mutable creature, throughout history he's always believed in one borderless world, one set of laws, and one world government; by definition, the utopist is wholly intolerant of all other visions.

Who are they? Outside of the thuggish dictators and their minions, they are the True Believers at the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. They are eternally in search of larger mandates and of course more money and power.

I may have mentioned it already but I'll note it again. The issue could be "global warming", global cooling, global temperature stagnation, or thwarting an Earth-bound asteroid. Utopists will support whatever alarmist movement that enlarges their canvas.

There's no competitive market for world governing organizations. All global causes must run through the above loci of power and the the nascent European Union. Global carbon taxes are simply a back door push for world government by unblinking idealists.

Count my deplorable Congressman Barney Frank (prior post) among the utopist crowd. The new chair of the House Financial Services Committee is amenable to international securities regulation. Don't fall for his double-speaking cant.

Financial regulators on both sides of the Atlantic may not be able to resolve policy disputes through co-operation and the creation of a global regulator should be considered, according to Barney Frank, the senior Democratic congressman.

Asked if a supra-national regulator would be needed, he told the Financial Times: “I don’t know. At this point that’s something to look into.”

If CaptiousNut had absolute power, he'd immediately withdraw the United States from all of these world governing institutions, most prominently the United Nations. I understand what President Bush tried to do, sending the pot-stirring John Bolton up there in efforts to reform the aimless institution. Even if it succeeds in the short term, the inherently flawed animal would sooner or later recidivate under subsequent apathetic or sympathetic administrations.

Oh yeah, my favorite Congressman also got into a heap of dung this week for accusing the Bush Administration of "ethnic cleansing" via Hurricane Katrina. Read the transcript of what he said, muttered, and insinuated:



"And, what I believe is, at this point you’re not talking about [inaudible], but what you’re talking about is, I think, a [inaudible], what you’re talking about is when you simply, in a calculated way, refuse to do anything for well over a year … [inaudible] … and [stuttering] I, I, the policy I think here is ethnic cleansing by inaction.

"It’s not ethnic cleansing in the sense that they’re killing people or [driving] people out, but what we need to recognize here is that, they’re in this happy position for them, where the federal government does nothing, as they become richer and richer, because well not only black people needed housing assistance, but they were [predominantly poor, who did it], to simply not do anything to alleviate this housing crisis which … was being exacerbated by Katrina … [inaudible] they, they, they let the hurricane do the ethnic cleansing, because then they’re, all they’re doing is not resisting it, that’s why I call ethnic cleansing by inaction, and I know that there are people who were very happy that, as a result, … [inaudible] … [so that] Louisiana would become a more widely Republican [city] … [inaudible] … because if you lose 100,000 black voters … then you have to take a state that was prodominately Republican and made it [inaudible]."

The video is here, but it's even more throughly incoherent.

Attention Liz Clayman Stalkers

First of all, her name is spelled "Liz Claman".





Click on that image to see the audit trail left by your deviance. Your Michigan IP address is not hard to trace.

When y'all google "liz clayman cnbc nude" and get directed to my blog, your cookies tell me who you are. If you are young and politically ambitious, expect to have your entire search history exposed one day. For many it'll make "smoking a joint in college" seem like nothing at all.



I am continually astounded by how many hits my blog gets directed from "liz clayman" searches. It must be her ample bosom and a surprising dearth of stuff written on her.

Pervert Update - I found another pic for y'all.



And another!

Happy New Year Morons

It's just a little too "socialist" for me to wish everyone a Happy New Year.

Alright I am back from a blogging vacation. Worry not, my mind has been working overtime and it's ready to dispense morsels of wisdom to my starving flock.

I strongly considered making a break from Marginalizing by dedicating January exclusively to positivity - perhaps titling a blog series - "January Geniuses", rife with bull financial arguments, chi management techniques, hagiographies of great minds, and a strict avoidance of all things negative.

But has Greg Mankiw and Co. really earned a month off?

I think not. Instead I will just resolve to be slightly more positive throughout 2007.

A few comments on the end of the "inclusive" holiday season.

Did you know that Hanukkah is only a notable Jewish holiday in the United States?

Do you even know anyone that celebrates Kwanzaa? It's a completely fabricated holiday not unlike Festivus - both of which were conceived in the narcotically imbued sixties.

Kwanzaa was dreamt up by a NutJob named Ron Karenga in 1966. How exactly can a Californian create a "Pan-African" holiday? The guy talks out of both sides of his mouth - or should I more eloquently state that he flatulates at both ends. From that Wikipedia link above,

He later stated, "...it was chosen to give a Black alternative to the existing holiday and give Blacks an opportunity to celebrate themselves and history, rather than simply imitate the practice of the dominant society."

In 1967, a year after Karenga proposed this new holiday, he publicly espoused the view that "Jesus was psychotic" and that Christianity was a white religion that blacks should shun.[5] However, as Kwanzaa gained mainstream adherents, Karenga altered his position so as not to alienate practicing Christians, then stating in the 1997 Kwanzaa: A Celebration of Family, Community, and Culture, "Kwanzaa was not created to give people an alternative to their own religion or religious holiday."

Nine years after Kwanzaa was invented, Dr. Karenga further moderated his views and became a Marxist.

Haha. California and Cambridge...the only two places where "moderates" are called Marxists.

Maybe I'll invent a holiday for the goyim to rival Yom Kippur - I feel particularly left out when that celebration comes around. Or maybe I'll start an all-white pro-basketball league. If you don't think there's a market for that then you don't know too many old white men!

I have already articulated my disgust for sharing. Remember multiculturalism is an ugly step child of socialism. Every person, every lifestyle, and every culture has to be equal in order to unite the proletariat. The children's shows on television are littered this time of year with seasonally flavored propaganda for the docile brats. The term "Christmas" is only uttered on the classic shows like "A Charlie Brown Christmas"; otherwise they use fashionable euphemisms like "holiday sharing party". I must have heard it fifty times on the Sprout Channel last month.

What does "sharing" have to do with Christmas? There may be a mutual exchange of gifts but that's not really "sharing". The next thing you know, these little kids will grow up thinking there's nothing wrong with compulsory sharing, i.e. confiscating the hard earned property of others...



Last night I turned on the television and the Sprout hostess was teaching kids to say "holiday" in sign language - what an absolute joke.

Now I am 32 years old and have never needed to use sign language beyond the universal middle digit expression, but nowadays, it's quite in vogue within certain circles to teach your toddler signing. Supposedly it aids "communication frustration". I recently met a young lady who actually taught at a school for the deaf. I asked her about these fruity parents that hire people to teach their kids sign language (ones that have no hearing problems whatsoever) and she turned red-faced with ire and declared the parents "total f*cking *ssholes".

Who could possibly complain about "global warming"?

I could see if a warm climate was getting unbearably hot, perhaps local denizens might get miffed by "human induced climate change". But in cold climes like Massachusetts, only Über-Morons could logically be upset at this year's heretofore mild winter.

It's a good thing I didn't attend my wife's holiday work party with the senior executives. She got seated next to the BIG BOSS's wife who proceeded to lecture everyone about the perils of "global warming". When I say "lecture" I mean it. She interrogated everyone on how they commuted to work. My wife won momentary plaudits for taking the commuter train into town. Yet uncomfortable with those laurels Mrs. C-Nut proudly declared that she owned a Chevy Suburban. I guess it was analogous to when Cubs fans throw opposing teams' homerun balls back onto the field.

Devil's Advocate - Well, what would you have said if you were there?

I would first raise my hand and loudly ask if anyone wanted to change seats with me.

Seriously, I hope I would have said nothing. My wife's boss controls too much of her income to risk offending him or his flaky wife. Self-interest trumps all.



Below is another timeless lesson on spousal dinner party etiquette. (Attention Morons and Luddites, you need to click, perhaps twice, on these images to make the videos play. They are not just weird pictures with a mysterious play button plastered on them.)



From personal experience I can assure you that husbands can be just as, if not more, embarrassing to their wives. Please, find my male chauvinism on other subjects.

Unencumbered, I would have told the clueless woman that "global warming" is nothing but a trendy climate theory and that she was both tragically uninformed and mortally brainwashed.

Lemma - It's a waste of time to reason with at least 90% of Morons.

Sadly, that is the conclusion I have come to over the last few years. Whether Moronic by nature or by conditioning, I have discovered that most dummies are incorrigible. My favorite tack to take with Morons is one of hectoring mockery. For whatever reason, popular learning curves flatten very early in life (age 25?) and enter a slow descent there on in. Bad ideas find easy burrowing in most adult minds, providing Captious bloggers with a target-rich environment.

How often do you hear someone say, "Well, I am not qualified to comment on that" or "I am not very fluent in that subject"???

Never, right?

While Michelangelo famously declared, I Am Still Learning, the apropos description of our times is Stuck On Stupid.

I am fully immersed in Michelangelo's mantra. Sure my learning curve was range-bound throughout my single years whilst I chased dollars, wine, women, and song; a fact that deeply pains me to think about. I certainly could have done all that but read a book or two along the way. But less than two years ago my brain was reborn, and I owe it all to this blog. I have said it before, and I'll say it again and again - I have learned more in the last two years of my life from the research, auto-didacticism, and composition of Marginalizing Morons than I have in the preceding three decades of my life.

Now back to that rich executive's Idiotic wife. Of course she lives in Wellesley, Massachusetts - the tony bastion of "conservatism and capitalism". Remember, the town doesn't even sell liquor and has "Transgendered Awareness" Day at its high school. Its reputation laughably proves the maxim that everything is relative. Anyway, this dummy has an 8 year old child in the Wellesley government school system who is "petrified of global warming". Can you say brainwashing? Or child abuse?

I remember being in the third grade (1982-83) and my teacher informed the class that Russia had a nuclear missile aimed at our city (Worcester). That was kind of scary and probably not something a teacher should be frightening kids with so glibly. But that was most likely true, in contradistinction to "global warming" mythology.

It's always risky getting pulled into "global warming" debates - you know, never argue with a fool because others may not know the difference.

To the Enviro-Evangelicals, owning a Honda Accord is always more virtuous than owning an Earth-scorching SUV. It simply doesn't matter if the Accord is driven 100,000 miles per year and the SUV sits idly in a garage. When small-brained folk scoff at my SUVs I fire back that I work from home and hardly drive at all (less than 10k miles per year). I demand to know how many miles they drive each year. Logical probing is feckless, they'll invariably exclaim, "So what, you COULD buy a minivan!"

Well, they COULD ride a bicycle to work. They COULD telecommute. They COULD turn their heat off completely and bundle up.

IF and COULD, two bywords of childish Morons, comically divorced from the reality-based world.

The woman in Wellesley...Despite her fear of the impending apocalypse, she has a couple of SUVs and feels extremely guilty about it. Perhaps in addition to shaming others into energy conservation she also offsets her carbon emissions?

Devil's Advocate - At least she cares...

Here we go again, drunk and stumbling down the steps of Conjecture Tavern. The next talking point will likely be, "Global Warming may not be happening, but we just can't take the risk...." - believe me, I have heard these arguments so often, I can predict not only the incoming talking points to a T, but also the order they get regurgitated. When did "smart" devolve into "robotically predictable"?

We can't take the risk of being wrong? Yep, the Enviro-Fanatics have co-opted Pascal's Wager.

Certainly, catastrophic risk is the most disastrous kind!!! What type of irresponsible person wouldn't be concerned about the end of Earth? Note at this nadir of the debate, the sly substitute of fear for logic, real science, and evidence. Mingled with the legerdemain is the fascist demand to avow your love of humanity and Mother Nature. This is why some of my favorite curveballs to throw "global warming" NutJobs are:

1) I bleepin' hate the environment!
2) Earth is my least favorite planet!
3) Mother Nature is a wench!!!

The fools just don't know how to respond. Guilt is puddy in their hands; so blunt the weapon.

As much as I'd like to get away from this subject I simply can not. It's the nexus of the Moron universe. As a propaganda buff, I ceaselessly marvel at the radius of "global warming" alarmism.

I just googled "george bush" and got 8.2 million search results.

While googling "global warming" currently yields 24.7 million search results.

So the most powerful man on the planet has merely a third as many search results...

Every time I come across a ridiculous "global warming" news story I dump it into a special folder for future reference. At my current rate of accumulation, I may soon have to buy an external hard drive to warehouse all of the inanity.

It takes more than just constitutional fortitude for normal people to stand up to such pervasive and sophisticated propaganda. Not only do they have to study the talking points and research the counter-arguments, they have to indulge inanity and defend the size of their cars, profess love for the Earth, proclaim themselves fearless of catastrophe, and bear the stigma inherent in tackling groupthink. If adults aren't up to this task, it's near impossible for eight-year-olds to resist the brainwashing - especially those kids of Moronic parents. Eric Hoffer has the pertinent quote,

We have rudiments of reverence for the human body, but we consider as nothing the rape of the human mind.

"Global Warming" isn't just the shibboleth of a harmless evangelical cult; there are real casualties beyond frazzled 8 year-old boys and neutered "holiday" parties. But that's a subject for a later date.



Moving on.

First Night is the 30 year-old New Year's Eve celebration in Boston. Read its ridiculous Mission Statement:

Mission Statement: To reveal and celebrate diversity through the First Night celebration and the First Night Neighborhood Network, using art as a catalyst to unify the community through creativity, imagination and participation.

Even more asinine than that is that First Night is a complete misnomer. Since it's celebrated on December 31st, First Night should really be called "Last Night".

Devil's Advocate - Well it does turn to January 1st at midnight...

Well then it should be called "First Morning"!

I met a woman in Brooklyn last week who is a Boston émigré and an interesting entrepreneur in her own right. She organizes closets for evil rich people in Manhattan. She isn't designing them; she goes in and sorts sweaters and shoes, by season and color; she alphabetizes outfits by brand and whatnot and charges an insane hourly wage. Anyway, in talking to her, the subject of Boston came up. She shook her head and gave the most succinct and accurate description I have heard yet.

She said, "Those people up there are BACKWARD".

Yes, indeed they are.

Forget Seinfeld and Superman, Massachusetts is the Bizarro World.
While Bostonians fancy themselves the smartest people on the Overheated Earth, they are in fact among the dumbest. Bet your bottom dollar that one hundred years from now, Boston will still have Puritanical liquor laws and still be celebrating First Night on the last one of the year. Just recently I have endured countless "global warming" lectures, but never once in my life has someone told me I was going to hell for my sins. And remember I went to a Catholic high school (albeit a Jesuit one).

If you want to find a backwards, in-your-face evangelical, then blindfold yourself and throw a dart in Massachusetts.

Marginalizing Bad Drivers

I can't stand these people that try to use Iraqi War deaths to buttress a most likely deeper criticism of the war.

My stock response is always, "Yeah, well over 100 Americans died in car accidents yesterday..."

Recently I had this altercation and the guy responded, "You may be an intelligent guy but that is a stupid thing to say." Then he "cut and ran" from the discussion.

Since that conversation ended, I will continue it here.

Devil's Advocate - I think what he is saying is that people die everyday for stuff like lung cancer and that doesn't mean we should ignore military deaths...

That's a bad example because lung cancer comes (mostly) from a self-destructive bad habit. I am just trying to put the deaths in perspective since Big Media does such a poor job of it.

Members of the military are paid volunteers doing heroic work AND they're fully aware of the risks of their choice. Their deaths are certainly tragic.

But for me, there is far more tragedy in someone dying simply on their drive home from work. If the numbers were closer it'd be a different story. But 3,000 military deaths in 3.75 years can't be compared to 160,000 auto accident deaths over that same period. There are substantially more widows and orphans created on American roads than in Iraqi deserts.

For most Americans, Iraq is an abstraction. If you don't know a soldier, turn on the news, or open a newspaper that war may as well not even exist. Bill O'Reilly said last night that the 15 minute segments of his show on Iraq are the least watched of his whole program. Many Americans like me just don't care. Thankfully I have the fast forward button of my DVR.

Devil's Advocate - So if you aren't there, then it's an abstraction? So was the Holocaust just an abstraction that people could justifiably ignore if they didn't know any Jews?

If there was a different Holocaust, forty times as big going on in America, then you could rightfully chock up Hitler's Holocaust as a trivial development in a far off land. My point is that auto accidents are such a more immediate danger to Americans than 7th century "insurgents" in Iraq. There are plenty of viable arguments against the war, but the number of military deaths doesn't even crack the top 100.

Almost every time I get in my car, I am toting my most prized possessions in life - my wife and two small children.

Of the five different cities I have lived in, Boston drivers are absolutely the most dangerous.

First of all, you have octogenarians in Oldsmobiles and Buicks driving everywhere. You know, modern society estranged them from their kids so they aren't living with them. Their kids won't confiscate their car keys because who'll then chauffeur the dinosaurs around? And as I mentioned in a previous post, they don't want to be cut out of the will - no matter how many kids their doting parents run over.



Watch the video and keep your eyes on the man crossing the street. The cause of the accident was cell phone yapping. It's horrid to think that that pedestrian got flattened because some self-centered bastard JUST HAD TO TALK TO SOMEONE...

People in Boston are all invariably yapping on their cell phones (not illegal yet), watching a dvd, text messaging, or driving with their dog on their lap like my neighbor.

Yeah officer, the only reason I ran over that little kid was because my little Fifi jumped up to lick my face. She is so sweet my little Fifi.

Remember this is a state that bans tag at recess because it's dangerous but it won't outlaw driver cell phone yapping.

Devil's Advocate - You are being over-dramatic about kids getting run over?

Am I? How would anyone know? Go try to find stats about the complicity of cell phones and car accidents. This stuff is confoundingly not reported. At the scene of any accident, drivers should be interrogated as to cell phone usage. It's easy enough to verify the call times from cell phone bills.

My peeves, as usual, are cemented by logic. I hate tailgaters and I hate right-lane highway speeders - they tend to be the dangerous weavers. I loathe drivers that imperil my safety; in fact I take it quite personally.

Off the highway, if you tailgate me, I will quickly glance at the mirror and profile your sanity. If you don't look like some gun-carrying lunatic, I will immediately hit the breaks and drive as low as 15 mph to teach you a lesson. Good luck trying to go around my massive Earth-scorching Chevy Suburban. Even if I am in a hurry, I feel duty-bound to self-sacrifice and teach the tailgater a lesson about appropriate driving distance and perhaps better personal time management.

I also can't stand these drivers on the highway that think coming within six inches of your fender is a normal way to ask you to shift right and let them pass. High beams from a distance are rude enough. Bear in mind that if I am driving 10 mph over the limit already, I feel no compulsion to switch lanes. No one is entitled to drive 80 mph. The highway is a dangerous place to have pissing contests but sometimes you have to push back provided safety permits.

When I was a child the government agents in "schools" erroneously taught us that a yellow light meant take to caution and slow down. Nowadays it means, hit the gas and fly through that intersection. See, I have been saying over and over again that teachers lie to the students!

This was in fact the cause of a car accident that destroyed my back almost 8 years ago. The traffic light turned yellow, and some geriatric in Philly misjudged how far from the light he was, hit the gas, and came barreling into the cab I was riding in. We had a green light and had just eased into the intersection at 21st and Lombard. Because he was accelerating, the fossil hit us so hard that both cars were wrapped around a telephone pole. They needed the jaws of life to get the Moron out of his car.

I could have been hurt far worse than I was so I hate to complain about my plight. But if you really loathe someone, wish a bad back upon them. A bad back pains physically AND psychologically. Every frustration or setback tortures your body as well as your mind. Always an intense hothead, now I have to exert constant effort on chi management. Perhaps one day I will write a positive post and expound some more on my techniques.



Boston is a self-described "tough town". But the cold climate, rudeness, and economic malaise do not chisel out "tough" citizens as people here like to think of themselves. It churns out egocentric *ssholes. Nowhere is it more apparent than on the roadways.

Let me walk you through the morass of Boston's driving/traffic problems.

First of all, the mass transit here sucks. The government does not encourage people to take the trains or buses. They won't build high rise apartments near train stations. You wouldn't believe the trouble West Roxbury gives to anyone who tries to build an apartment or two near its train station. They want traffic studies, environmental studies, etc. They have old people in town who still drive down Centre Street to mail a letter or buy groceries 3 times a week and don't want any more "traffic". As a result, no young people live downtown and therefore you can forget about a vibrant market for bars, restaurants, or other commercial development. The lack of high rise apartments precludes a critical mass of residents, which would otherwise energize the local economy and put a dent in commuting traffic. Centre Street in West Roxbury is one of the most pathetic dilapidated main streets I have ever seen - 5 miles from Boston no less (only 22 minutes on the train). No normal young people would ever consider living there as it stands.

But that's not the only side effect. Since there is no way to live near a train station, everyone has to scatter about, own a car, and drive everywhere. See how these things spiral out of control? Arguments to discourage "traffic" invariably make it worse.

Last year, gasoline crossed the $3 dollar level and likely tempted many drivers to think about taking mass transit to work. A good thing right? Well the Massachusetts government apparently wanted to forestall that - they raised fares across the board. Subway fares are going up the most - 36% next month. They claim the fare hikes are required by law. The MBTA is hiding behind a "legal requirement" to balance their budget.

Bet your bottom dollar that the budget is in the red because of unions. Remember, environmentalism ALWAYS plays second fiddle to socialism - a lesson Greg Mankiw would be wise to digest.

Alongside the octogenarian driver is the more dangerous teenage/college punk driver. There are scores of them and not just because of the socialist/environmental zoning restrictions that force everyone into car-dependent lifestyles. Remember, Massachusetts is a full-blown Communist bastion. Under the shibboleth of equality, the Commonwealth will not let auto insurance companies price discriminate on very important factors. Generically speaking, they can't discriminate based on age or geography no matter what actuarial risk profiles demonstrate. Consequently, young drivers pay the same premiums as safer, older drivers; and rural drivers have to ante up just as much as more accident prone city drivers.

Devil's Advocate - This isn't fair?

Not only is it not fair, it's very dangerous. Why should older, safer drivers in rural Western Mass have to subsidize lane-weaving college kids in Boston? It befuddles the mind why at least half of the state's representatives haven't risen up in arms to protest this price distortion. Their deafening silence implies at least a fear of Boston-based pols and at most a stark ignorance of economic reality. The study I read concluded that car insurance is, on average, $150 higher than it would be if insurers were free to "discriminate" just on age and geography. Allowed to charge the accident prone their fair premiums, fewer urbanites and fewer youths will be on the roads.

Why does Mass have this policy on geographical discrimination? Who knows? I believe it's because they don't want minority Dorchesterites to be paying more than the bluebloods in Chestnut Hill. Or maybe it germinated from the power of Boston pols who just wrested cheaper car insurance for their constituents. When I lived in Philly, a friend of mine was given his father's BMW. He called for an insurance quote, for a new BMW , parked on the street in Philly, driven by a 23 year old. They told him insurance would be 7k per year. Needless to say, that BMW never made it down to the City of Brotherly Love. He took the subway and cabs instead.

Whatever the original motivations or ongoing justifications, free market meddling in the name of "equality" remains socialism with all of its attendant negative externalities. Here it goes beyond just higher prices and lower efficiency because people not so infrequently die in car accidents.

Now back to my "cut and run" critic who thinks I am a fool to talk about highway deaths. He doesn't have any kids to worry about or to make him drive a little bit safer. I suggest he think about OTHER PEOPLE'S KIDS or even his own health. Over one hundred people per day die in car accidents; maybe the number isn't significantly reducible but I highly doubt it. The fact remains, nobody is studying the issue; we are all just supposed to become inured to it - I guess.

My theory is that there is a sub-population of dangerous drivers out there, not very hard to identify. They will be the ones that at some point end up injuring or killing somebody. Surely, everyone knows a few acquaintances that drive like lunatics. People either yap on the phone, speed, tailgate, and weave all of the time OR hardly ever at all. I think they need unmarked police cars out there mounted with cameras to get these specific jackasses off of the roads. Also we need better mass transit, fairer "discriminatory" insurance pricing, and a deregulated cab industry - please don't get me re-started on the cabs.

Bad driving is taken too lightly by almost everyone. Just accept it because it's far worse in other countries? I don't think so. Around 400,000 people have been killed on the roads in just the last 10 years. It is a present day mini-Holocaust.

And that 400,000 number isn't counting all of the broken backs, limbs, and vegetative comas wrought by car accidents - a number likely much larger.

I could be wrong, but I think it's possible to get driving deaths down to say 90 per day rather than current 115 and climbing.

Recently a college classmate of mine and his wife were killed in an auto accident, orphaning their infant daughter. Some guy of dubious immigration status drove across a wide grassy median on the highway and caused the tragic pileup. There was no sign of drugs or alcohol. The guy either fell asleep, was talking on his cell phone, or guilty of some other distraction. The news of this accident was broadcast widely all over New York (of course without the messy illegal immigrant angle). What real life example of most families' worst nightmare wouldn't be?

My wife knows three kids from her high school that were killed ON BICYCLES by automobiles.

A former co-worker of mine came home to the most horrible phone call one day. His wife and fourteen year old son were killed in an accident on the way home from lacrosse practice.

I knew a ten year old child who chased a ball into the street, only to be run over by a passing car.

Think for a moment. How many auto deaths have hit close to your home? That number will only go up.



Some Morons vote for socialists, but others may get distracted by Oprah or SportsCenter and run you over on the street, regardless of whom they voted for.

Be wary of them all.

UPDATE

Hello jalopnik readers!!!

Sorry to disappoint but your webmaster misled you. Nowhere in my post did I insist that deaths from cell phone yapping drivers are worse than the Holocaust. Either he reads too fast or thinks too slowly.

I hope he's got a better grasp of cars than he has of basic reading comprehension!!!

Salmon and Mashed Potatoes

Listen to Boston Celtic Tony Allen eloquently explain his career best game last night.



To think that all this time I was incorrectly pronouncing it as "sam-uhn"....

Dumb Kids - Take 2

Social Skills for Blockheads

The video is a little messed up. If I happen upon the commercial again I will re-upload it. All you need to know is that it's a television ad for Magtastik where Dr. Paul Poumeliotis unleashes this doozy,

Playing with blocks or similar building activities really enhances your child's interactive skills and later on, social skills...

What the bleep?

Playing with blocks will enhance your kid's social skills?

Will it guarantee a date for the prom as well? If not, can I sue the quack doctor?

Apparently all of those weirdos in my class mustn't of had enough block time as toddlers.

Invoking "social skills" is one of the best ways to market to dumb parents these days.

...Daycare will improve kids' social skills.

...Deval's Patrick's all-day kindergarten will improve children's social skills.

...Playing with Magtastik blocks will improve social skills.

Personally, lower taxes would improve my coefficient of socialization. Somehow I need to work that "social skills" shibboleth into my own propaganda.

The End-of-the-World Trade

Intro to Conspiracy Theory

Anyone who's traded the gold sector as much as I have is fluent in doom-and-gloom, End-of-the-World financial prognostications.

Skepticism towards government abounds in every populace and has in every period. Are the pols lying to us? Surreptiously lining their pockets? Abusing their power to suppress dissent? Are they manipulating the garb of reality through parades, rhetoric, or scapegoats?

Of course they are - ask any random person on the street. Open almost any history book.

Now ratcheting that cynicism up a notch it follows that government must be recklessly manipulating the financials to further its own devious interests.

What are those interests? And how are they doing this? Well the details of a conspiracy theory are inherently unimportant. Conspiracy theories fend off factual probing with a Hydra-headed resilience.

Oil companies manipulate prices up; later they fall. It couldn't be market forces moving the prices, the greedy oil execs decided to soak the little people. Then they got scared of Bill O'Reilly's populist handwringing and used their omnipotence to lower gas prices back down. Every price move or industry development has a knee-jerk cynical explanation. Supposedly we went to war in Iraq just to get oil. Since we have gotten that oil and increased world supply, prices, against all economic logic, have risen. And that brings the nutjobs back to their oil industry greed/manipulation lemma.

I am not kidding. The who, what, when, and how of a conspiracy theory are fluid to the point of irrelevance. The vaguer the accusation, the wider the net to cast.



In 1755 a horrific earthquake ravaged Lisbon, Portugal killing between 60,000 and 100,000 people. The absence of seismologists opened the door for any and all opportunistic speculators. The Church took occasion to blame it on immorality. Jean Jacque Rousseau blamed it on depravity of urban living. (If people didn't live all jammed together on 5 story buildings there'd have been much fewer casualties). Ignorance has always given license to conspiratorial conjecture.

Make no mistake, there will be a financial earthquake in your lifetime. We'll all have personal scapegoats lined up to blame: oil companies, Alan Greenspan, George Bush, Bin Laden, Wall Street, politicians, hedge funds, "greed", the national debt, China, outsourcing, illegal immigrants, the "rich", etc. Amid the crossfire of blame, genuine culpability will be quite beside the point.

So why all this talk of doomsday and conspiracy theories?

The reason I write this post is that my trading positions at the moment look like I am predicting the end of the world.

Long gold and silver.
Long oil.
Short the Nasdaq.
Short the 30 year bond.

Of course, trades are inherently short-term; conceivably I could cover and reverse them all before lunch. But if oil exploded and the dollar collapsed, I'd make a small fortune. Frighteningly, these scenarios are two key ingredients in any viable End-of-the-World prediction.

Now do realize I am not simply trading off a doomsday conspiracy theory; my positions are dictated by empirical price action and economic theory. Any legitimate economic textbook will tell you that cheap money (low interest rates) sows the seeds of inflation, which then erodes the currency. The only question is of timing.

Look at it this way, if the dollar lost value, our way of life would be turned upside down, and perhaps a shudder would be felt globally. Those dim ramifications demand we consider everything that could possibly cause the dollar to devalue.



Inflation of course is suspect numero uno. It can arise from the government simply printing too much currency; it could come from a sudden spike in prices (leaving aside for a moment the relationship between the two). Lastly, dollar weakness could arise from a fear of fiscal solvency, i.e. the national debt.

Oil is arguably the oxygen of the global economy. Jack its price up and Goldilocks won't long be able to breath. Almost every single necessity of life will cost more - at least theoretically. Ergo, rising oil must play a starring role in The End of the World.

The other co-star, previously alluded to, is your Federal Government. So how much money is it really printing? That's a question not exactly dominating your local news now is it? Here we are getting into more esoteric financial stuff that I admittedly don't fully understand such as the velocity of money, M1, M2, etc. What I do know is that the government owes lots of money and unfortunately for its creditors, the Feds are the ones who print it.

Should we just trust the slimeballs on this one?

I just did a google search for "growth of money supply" and found this nugget on the Federal Reserve's website.

In 2000, when the Humphrey-Hawkins legislation requiring the Fed to set target ranges for money supply growth expired, the Fed announced that it was no longer setting such targets, because money supply growth does not provide a useful benchmark for the conduct of monetary policy.

Our government is so compassionate...It doesn't want to confuse us, the fretful public. As is plain to see, tinfoil-hatted conspiracy theorists don't exactly have nothing to point to.

I am sure some people monitor the Fed's printing of greenbacks, but I think it's safe to say that it gets about 1,000,000th of the public scrutiny given to say the quality of cous cous at Guantanamo Bay.

So after the "trust us on money supply" policy piques your cynicism, next take a look at the Federal Reserve's interest rate machinations. At the slightest sign of weakness they drop rates to artificially revive the economy and buffet political incumbents. They arrogantly feel that such fine tuning steadies the ship. I disagree.

In the long run, the economy is going where it's going no matter what the Fed does. Long term interest rates (set by markets) and technological innovation trump the short term borrowing cost of money. The Fed's manipulations create large distortions which preclude the vastly more efficient free market from allocating capital. All the Fed really did in the last few years by lowering rates was encourage debt-laden consumers to borrow and spend more money. Sure Fed defenders can find GDP growth numbers or other convenient metrics that allegedly justify their "ship steadying" mission. But I say, look at havoc of the Nasdaq dropping 70% from its high. Did they really need to lower interest rates in the wake of Long Term Capital or the Asian financial crisis? Or later on after 9/11?

Note also they raised them in 1999 partly to entice people to not make a Y2K run on their banks. The criteria for their manipulations are unbounded.

Devil's Advocate - But wasn't Greenspan trying to deflate the Nasdaq bubble in 1999? Wasn't he doing the right thing?

You mean deflate a bubble that he arguably helped create (by lowering rates in 1998 under the guise of Asian woes)?

That would be like machine-gunning a guy and then wanting credit for calling an ambulance.

Okay, for the sake of argument, say they were correct to raise rates in 1999. Since the Nasdaq doubled anyway, from 2,500 to its 5,000 zenith, clearly they were too late to the rescue. This brings us to our present day analogue.

Right now, the Federal Reserve is literally praying that their recent rake hikes not only slow the economy, they are praying that a cooler economy will then a bite out of inflation. This may be the largest parlay bet in history.

Remember, a tightening Fed couldn't ground the dot-coms in 1999.

What if the economy slows but commodities march onward and upward?

Lowering rates will just aggravate the inflation. So what then, raise rates in the face of a breaking economy? That will never happen.



The Fed simply does not have a tool to crack open the stagflation nut - which is what we could be looking at if the Fed's parlay busts.

Congress could theoretically crack that nut BUT it has a record of making things worse.

Here's what it could do to stem inflation, strengthen the dollar, and invigorate the economy:

1) Lower taxes.
2) Start phasing out Medicare. Push HSAs.
3) Privatize Social Security.
4) Shrink the size of government. Deregulate more industry. Decentralize government schooling.
5) Attack hidden taxes on business like the tort lobby, ethanol mandates, etc.

Here's what they will most likely do:

1) Raise taxes on income, capital, and perhaps oil companies.
2) Expand Medicare (or leave it alone while demographics expand it).
3) Will do nothing positive with Social Security. They will means test "wealthy" people off of it. They will increase the cap beyond the first 90k of salaries. They will make 11 million illegal immigrants retroactively eligible for benefits - even though the "trust fund" is already underfunded and also ravaged by unfavorable demographics.
4) They will expand the size of government. Regulate more industry, e.g. hedge funds are up next. The socialists will keep pushing for nationalized healthcare.
5) They will add more hidden taxes on economic activity.

If you don't think econo-illiteracy pervades America from Joe Blow on the street, all the way through the highest political offices, then you haven't read enough of my blog. Any financial earthquake will be met with the crossfire of blame mentioned above but the ignorant finger-pointing will pale compared to the damage wrought by the political "solutions". Be sure to thank your local Congressman.

I am covering a lot of stuff here but this is no disjointed diatribe.

If the dollar is fundamentally in trouble, the only place to hide is in precious metals. Sure you could convert your dollars to euros, yen, or other currencies but then you're opening another can of worms - especially with the euro. The European Union is more concerned with global warming and world government than they are with economic vitality. The Japanese have their own problems as well, e.g. an inflexible banking system.

Devil's Advocate - So how does the dollar weaken if you don't see other currencies strengthening?

Finally DA, you ask a good question. I don't necessarily see the buck weakening versus other currencies - at least not to the extent of other goldbugs. My argument for dollar weakness focuses more on a loss of purchasing power from inflated commodity prices (and debt).



Gold is THE SAFE HAVEN from dollars, euros, and yen. While currencies have come and gone, the yellow metal has held value for 4,000 years.



Sure you could demonstrate how horrible of an investment gold has been over many time periods BUT I can always fire back my 4,000 year argument. How'd the dollar do during the Civil War? How'd the German mark fare with Hitler? Didn't Oscar Schindler use diamonds as a currency while fleeing for safety?

The conspiracy theories will never, ever go away. In fact, I think they will gain steam for the foreseeable future.

Some of these goldbugs are indefatigably nuts. They believe the government has sold all of the gold at Fort Knox. They believe you have to own gold coins instead of gold futures because banks will never be able to deliver your metal in the wake of a financial catastrophe. Others live in cabins with stockpiled food, firearms, and bomb shelters. As nutty as I am, I am not quite there yet.

There's so much more I could say on this topic but I am going to end it here for now.

Tax Shelter asked in advance for a "What if I am wrong?" consideration. I am sure he'll fine tune the question in the comment section but I'll give it a go now.

If I am wrong about these trades, I will lose some of my hard earned money. My positions are not very large but are quite levered in the sense it looks like one big End-of-the-World bet. Should oil drop, not only will I lose on that position, but it's likely that gold and silver dip as well. And of course stocks and bonds may rally some more.

I want to emphasize again that these are "trades" not investments. Aside from the 30 year Treasury, I have been both short and long gold, silver, and the Nasdaq more times than I could count just this year.

I am "wrong" every single day. Today I bought Apple too early. Yesterday I lost 7 points on Gold. I got run over shorting the Nasdaq in November. The game I play is not about being "right" all of the time or even 51% of the time. It's about cleaning up on your winners and having small losers. I don't like the term "diversification" - I much prefer "a basket approach". It really has taken me 10 years to learn how to trade smaller. As a fearless youth I swung a big bat on single positions and had to numb the losses with inebriation. Maybe that's why there are no trading firms in Boston, because bars won't sell you more than three drinks before cutting you off?

I am fully aware that my blog spouts a formidable negative vibe. I have the End-of-the-World trade on and of course I am short the housing market because I rent. When I say I don't believe in long term equity investing remember I am speaking for myself only and about the stock universe as I see it today. I have a hunch that Tax Shelter wants to know the long term bull arguments for stocks and perhaps real estate but I'll wait for him to clarify.

If the economy keeps roaring, interest rates stay low, and real estate starts ascending again, I will get hurt financially - no question about it.

But if I am right and play the right side of coming trends, not only will I earn some good money, but I will vault up the wealth ladder.

It's one thing to get rich when seemingly everybody else is, like in internet stocks or in real estate, but quite another to make bank while others are bleeding. Something like 69% of Americans own a house and at least 50% own stocks directly. I am not really that bearish on the stock market because its valuation is not that high. I am however very strongly bearish on housing and on the long bond because of their stratospheric prices.

Okay that's it. I am ending this post because the concept of me making money on this trade is just too depressing.

Maybe I'll renominate it as the schadenfruede trade...

Article on Education

The Dream Palace of Educational Theorists
by John Derbyshire (Dec. 2006)


Education is a subject I find hard to contemplate without losing my temper. In the present-day U.S.A., education is basically a series of rent-seeking rackets.

There is the public school racket, in which homeowners and taxpayers fork out stupendous sums of money to feed a socialistic extravaganza in which, when its employees can spare time from administration, "professional development" sabbaticals, and fund-raising for the Democratic Party, boys are pressed to act like girls, and dosed with calming drugs if they refuse so to act; girls are encouraged to act like boys by taking up advanced science, math, and strenuous sports, which few of them have any liking or aptitude for; and boys and girls alike are indoctrinated in the dubious dogmas of "diversity" and political correctness.

Any article that starts out like that can't be bad.

Click here and read the rest.

Moronic Athletes

I am working on a few posts but my time is otherwise strapped and the babysitter is MIA. All I have today are these timeless Moronic quotes from the sports world.

Chicago Cubs outfielder Andre Dawson on being a role model: "I wan'all dem kids to do what I do, to look up to me. I wan' all the kids to copulate me."

New Orleans Saint RB George Rogers when asked about the upcoming season: "I want to rush for 1,000 or 1,500 yards, whichever comes first."

And, upon hearing Joe Jacobi of the 'Skins say: "I'd run over my own
mother to win the Super Bowl," Matt Millen of the Raiders said: "To win, I'd run over Joe's Mom, too."

Torrin Polk, University of Houston receiver, on his coach, John Jenkins: "He treats us like men. He lets us wear earrings."

Football commentator and former player Joe Theismann, 1996: "Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein."

Senior basketball player at the University of Pittsburgh : "I'm going to graduate on time, no matter how long it takes."

Bill Peterson, a Florida State football coach: "You guys line up alphabetically by height." And, "You guys pair up in groups of three, then line up in a circle."

Boxing promoter Dan Duva on Mike Tyson hooking up again with promoter Don King: "Why would anyone expect him to come out smarter? He went to prison for three years, not Princeton."

Stu Grimson, Chicago Blackhawks left wing, explaining why he keeps a color photo of himself above his locker: "That's so when I forget how to spell my name, I can still find my clothes."

Lou Duva, veteran boxing trainer, on the Spartan training regimen of heavyweight Andrew Golota: "He's a guy who gets up at six o'clock in the morning regardless of what time it is."

Chuck Nevitt, North Carolina State basketball player, explaining to Coach Jim Valvano why he appeared nervous at practice: "My sister's expecting a baby, and I don't know if I'm going to be an uncle or an aunt."

Frank Layden, Utah Jazz president, on a former player: "I told him, 'Son, what is it with you? Is it ignorance or apathy?' He said, "Coach, I don't know and I don't care."

Shelby Metcalf, basketball coach at Texas A&M, recounting what he told a player who received four F's and one D: "Son, looks to me like you're spending too much time on one subject."

Amarillo High School and Oiler coach Bum Phillips when asked by Bob Costas why he takes his wife on all the road trips, Phillips responded:
"Because she is too ugly to kiss good-bye."

Barney Frank-ly Is A Dissembling Socialist

On November 29th, Congressmen Barney Frank (S - Massachusetts) appeared on the O'Reilly Factor. Frank is no political lightweight; he'll chair the House Financial Services Committee when the Democrats take control of Congress in January.

Definitely watch the video first. I've transcribed the important exchange below - though it's a thoroughly inadequate substitute for the viewing experience.

BillO - Do you believe in income redistribution?

BF - To some extent the whole country does...George Bush supports a tax structure in which people at the upper end get taxes much more than people at the lower end. It's called progressive taxation. But that's not what I've been talking about mostly now. The problem we have now is not that the government isn't doing enough to redistribute to the lower end but that the government is doing too much to redistribute it to the higher end.

BillO - Do you believe in it or not?

BF - Stop being a silly would-be district attorney...Bill if you want to do that go to law school. The fact is I told you I do like George Bush does.

BillO - You're not like George Bush. That's ridiculous.

BF - Bill, will you please stop interrupting?

BillO - When you say something dopey, I am going to point it out.

BF - I came on the show to have a coherent conversation...

BillO - And I asked you a question and...

BF - And as I try to answer it you keep interrupting. It's your style when you don't like the answer...

BillO - It's YOUR STYLE to make an invalid comparison between you and George Bush....That's bull.

BF - I said that I agree with George Bush that people at the upper end of the income scale should be taxed more than people at the lower end.

BillO - That's not income redistribution.
.
.
..
BillO - What's the top tax rate? What should it be?

BF - I think when Bill Clinton had it at 39%, we had a very good economy. But that of course is only part of the problem because you are trying to ignore the issue that public policies today are in fact (effect?) going in the reverse direction and what we've seen is more and more of the wealth that we've created in this society is staying in the hands of very few people and I would like to see public policies that distribute the wealth more fairly. I'm not talking about taking from the rich and giving to the working classes or poor. I am talking about a fairer share of the increased wealth because as Alan Greenspan said a couple of years ago, it's all going recently to a handful of people. I am talking about just sharing the increase instead of redistributing.

BillO - 39%, you think is a fair top rate.

BF - Yeah, I said that.

CaptiousNut - Actually BF, no you didn't say that. You blurted out some vague connection to the internet bubble and a 39% tax rate.

Boy would I have loved to have been there asking my socialist Congressman questions. Bill did a decent job (compared to his peers in the news business) but it's nothing like to what I would have laid on the slimy stammerer. Of course, Bill can't "drill" Barney too hard or he'll never come back on the show. I predict it will be a while before Barney appears again given his embarrassing performance.

Now is Frank a liar or a complete Moron?

What I mean is, does he truly believe in confiscating money from the working rich and handing it to the non-working, morally-challenged poor and just doesn't want to admit to it?

Or he is so thoroughly stupid that he really thinks he answered the darn question?

Hey Barney do you believe in X?

Well, to some extent the whole country does....

What???????

He mocks Bill as a "would-be district attorney" but there isn't a judge in the land that would permit such outright evasion. Your honor, will you please direct the witness to answer the question?

Now how many lies can Barney cram into his non-answer?

The whole country supports progressive taxation?

First of all, I don't support it. Libertarians are likely all against it. Steve Forbes has been advocating a flat-tax for many years and ran for President on that platform in 1996. Not to mention most especially that HIGH INCOME EARNERS DON'T SUPPORT the disproportionate confiscation of their wages.

George Bush supports progressive taxation?

Why? Because he didn't veto every Congressional bill not including a flat-tax? Therefore he believes in progressive taxation?

The same exact day Frank uttered these falsehoods (again while evading a direct question), wire reports were buzzing about George Bush touting Estonia's economic growth and FLAT TAX.

Of all the days in the last six years to misrepresent lie about President Bush's tax philosophy, could Frank have picked a more untimely one?

Too bad Bill didn't have a Captious voice in his hear on this point...

I just had a flashback to Al Gore hyperventilating about global warming in NYC on one of its coldest days on record.

How can Frank say with a straight face that Bush agrees with him on progressive taxation?

Bush lowered the top tax bracket from 39 percent to 35 percent.

AND

Bush also cut taxes on the low end.



Flattening out the tax code at its highest point seems a most peculiar expression of support for progressive taxation.

Then again, answering a question about your personal beliefs with "the whole country believes in..." also confounds most holders of 3-digit IQs.

President Bush also wants to abolish the estate tax which is arguably its most progressive confiscation. Frank and his comrades are not exactly on board with that one.

Let's pause the litany of lies for a second.

Frank's response (re: income redistribution) may span the gamut of pejorative adjectives, but that's not to say there's no logic to his tack. Let me try to illustrate this obliquely.

Often times when Senator John Kerry is interrogated about some policy or gaffe of his, he starts his response some variation of, "We have to do better..." or "I have to do better..."

When any Congressmen admits his and his cohorts' incompetence, the listener will reflexively fall into initial agreement. After that, it's much easier for a John Kerry to evade a question, peddle BS, and unleash more sophisticated propaganda. A few sentences into Kerry's response-turned-monologue, and the audience of Soundbite Nation won't even remember the initial question; at least that's what he's striving for. Worst of all, John Kerry won't seem like such a detestable figure.

I want to give another example before I tie to all together.

Remember a dissembling Greg Mankiw hid behind Alan Greenspan in his call for higher gasoline taxes,

National security. Alan Greenspan called for higher gas taxes recently. "It's a national security issue," he said. It is hard to judge how much high oil consumption drives U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern politics. But Mr. Greenspan may well be right that the gas tax is an economic policy with positive spillovers to foreign affairs.

My comment was:

A Greenspan quote? Is that supposed to bring gravitas? Here's what this is. Greg wanted to trot out his own personal conspiracy theory of oil consumption subsidizing "Middle Eastern politics" - whatever the heck that nebulous animal is. BUT, he lacked the stones to say it himself and opted to mask his tripe in a quote from Yoda.


Barney Frank's use of "the whole country" and "George Bush" is a very LOGICAL DEFLECTION - not fundamentally different than the examples given of John Kerry or Greg Mankiw. In this case, Frank wields President Bush as the Useful Stereotype to burnish his own image.

Bill O'Reilly essentially called Frank a socialist, and graciously gave him a chance to disavow it. Frank then tried to sell himself as mainstream, cut from the same mold as the most powerful and visible capitalist of all - George Bush. All the while Frank indulged in FALSE COMPARISON and demonstrated an infinitely flexible relationship with the truth.

...I would like to see public policies that distribute the wealth more fairly. I'm not talking about taking from the rich and giving to the working classes or poor.

Wow, a fairer distribution of wealth that doesn't involve taking it from those who have it????????

...I am talking about just sharing the increase instead of redistributing.

How can sharing possibly not be considered redistribution?????????

The problem we have now is not that the government isn't doing enough to redistribute to the lower end but that the government is doing too much to redistribute it to the higher end.

The only thing he can be talking about here is the "tax cuts for the rich". When his ostensible co-ideologue George Bush dropped the top income tax rate from 39% to 35% - that is called "redistribution". Huh?

Letting people keep 4% more of the money they earned is a government "redistribution"?

If a guy walks by me and I don't mug him for his wallet, did I then "redistribute" his cash to him?

The problem we have now is not that the government isn't doing enough to redistribute to the lower end...

WHO THE HECK SAID THAT WAS "THE PROBLEM" !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Can you say straw man?



You can't even say that Frank "bobs and weaves" - at least in the context of tax redistribution. The bell rang, he ran out of the ring, stole the announcer's microphone, and started fulminating from the rafters.

Distortion, deflection, mythological metaphor, vituperation, and outright propaganda all by a man "who came on the show to have a coherent conversation".

Note that Greg Mankiw is proud of his Congressman Barney Frank.

Frank was recently re-elected in the gerrymandered 4th District of Massachusetts. He ran unopposed.

If you can't or didn't watch the YouTube clip at the top, make sure you find the time to do so; it's highly illuminating.