Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Marginalizing Technical Analysis



Read this and tell me whether the Option Queen is saying to buy or sell the Nasdaq:

The NASDAQ 100 made a lower high and a lower low in the Friday session which, was a positive session….but not positive enough. There is a gap on the chart from 2006.00 to1995.00. The stochastic indicator is curling over to the downside and will issue a sell-signal within a session or two. Our own indicator is will issue a sell-signal in the next session. The Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is issuing a continued buy-signal at overbought levels. The RSI is simply going sideways. The 5-period exponential moving average is at 2012.33. The top of the Bollinger band is at 2052.48 and the lower edge is seen at 1886.11. The market looks as though it is curling over to the downside with definite signs of exhaustion. The downtrend line for this coming week basis the weekly chart is at 2019.99. The uptrend line is at 1966.22. The indicators on the weekly chart all continue to be positive for the NASDAQ 100 with more room to the upside. The monthly chart is slightly more confusing. The stochastic indicator continues to issue a buy-signal at overbought levels, our own indicator is issuing a fresh sell-signal, the Thomas DeMark Expert indicator is issuing a slight sell-signal at overbought levels and the RSI is simply overbought.

I couldn't decipher it either - and I read it three times. They have indicators and indicators on the indicators. These clowns simply do not know what they are talking about. The fact is, if you draw a bazillion lines on a chart, of course the price graph will bounce off some of them. They never really say anything of value. My favorite is when they say, "if it goes up, we expect higher prices" and the like. No poop, Sherlock!

Technical analysis, or "charting", is a single tool - it ain't the whole tool box.

Believe it or not, the Option Queen is one of the most readable chartists out there.

In my new realm of commodities trading I have to sift through bushels of this crap.

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