People are always asking me about the market so I will use this post to provide an update.
Right now, as core positions, I am heavily short the long bond (still) and the euro (re-established).
After a volatile start to the year - decent gains in week one, followed by horrific losses in weeks two and three - I have been trading well and chipping away at my deficit.
I have scalped Google a few times. In and out at $550. In at $513, out at $524. And now back in again at $497 and $519. As I type this it's trading at $535.
Been playing the long side in Apple recently. In at $128, out at $134. Back in again at $125. Currently trading at $128.
I dumped all my Newmont Mining, stock and calls, when it was trading at $54.90. Stock currently down to $49.21. Now if I can only get out of my other POS miner CDE...
I stuck to my plan of shorting any financials stubborn enough to bounce. Made 5 points shorting LFG. Am short Capital One Financial from $53 - currently at $48. Also short Ken Lewis' Bank of America from its current price, $42.75. Short Citigroup from $29, currently at $26. Just shorted HSBC, it's at $73.50 and I am down 2 points.
I shorted Washington Mutual at $21.50, it's currently at $16.50. And I made 5 points shorting Fannie Mae at $39, it's down to $30 - I should have held it!
Sounds like I should be rich, no? Well, I dug myself quite a hole from buying the NASDAQ-100 way, way too early.
I also bought AMD and AMR at their respective bottoms - but I wussed out and missed a couple of healthy bounces. Would have been 4pts (or 33%) on AMR and AMD bounced from roughly $5.31 back to $8.00 before fizzling again.
My futures/commodities account got annihilated by the recent spike in the 30-year Treasury; the Flight to Insanity continues. Back in October, I recommended to my millions of readers shorting it 113. I also said to use 5 or 6 points as your "mental loss provision". Well, it spiked a full 9 points after my post. In these situations, I am glad that nobody actually follows my advice! I had to cover some of my position at the very top but put most of it back on. Today the long bond future has come in a bit, but it's still at 117 and yielding a mere 4.61%. Who are these clowns still tying up their money for 30 years at rates that don't even cover inflation?
I did get long sugar and cotton recently and flipped them profitably. Soft commodities have levitated to multi-year highs over the past few months. What else would you expect when the government starts pumping money into the economy hand over fist? Wait, you didn't actually think real estate prices would rise, did you?
Take a gander at these meteoric spikes in coffee, cocoa, and sugar:
And take a gander at the recent strength in agricultural commodities: wheat, corn, and soybeans.
So what do I see the market doing these next few months?
Well, what do you care? Nobody has ever taken my advice on anything. You're going to buy and sell what you've already decided in your own mind. If my advice agrees with it, you'll be more confident. But if my advice conflicts with your opinion, you'll ignore it and just do what you were going to do in the first place.
Just kidding. All of my best ideas, my predictions, are posted above. I'd never recommend anything to anyone that wasn't in my own trading account.
Obviously, there's a percolating financial panic afoot. Nobody knows how bad it is or will become. Jim Rogers is proudly short Citigroup; he says they'll be having balance sheet stress for years.
Of course he also said the long bond would never dip below 6% - a level it hasn't seen in about 8 years.
Heck, if it would just rise to 5%, I'd make a boatload of $$$$...
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