Sunday, February 07, 2010
Last week I discussed Xtrends traders Sol and Atilla. Both, a week ago anyway, were calling for a market bounce.
See - Talking Out Of Both Sides Of Each Hole and More Popcorn.
And they were absolutely right - for a couple days any way!
After closing out the prior week, well, weakly, the S&P 500 blasted straight up, regaining 30 points by Tuesday's close - without nary a downtick, mind you.
Then, obviously, it gave back all those gains by Friday's close, finishing the week down a hair - 5 full points.
So how did Atilla and Sol make out?
Well, I can't really tell. Atilla's *performance* site still has him net long, by a 2.4 to 1 ratio.
And Sol, either he didn't update his positions yet this weekend, or he didn't cash in a single share on his prescient *bounce* bet. It's hard to imagine that he came in long $88 million worth of stock, saw the S&P rise 30 points....and did not take any profits. I'll wait another day or two to see if his updated position changes.
But getting back to Atilla for a moment. He was an outspoken, all-in bear last year like myself. We were both knocking the cover off the ball through March,...he's a guy who, much like myself, got clobbered riding the triple short financial ETF - FAZ down to zero.
But here's one of the differences between me and him. I wasn't out there making grand proclamations that the market would crash *next week* as he was, week after week of this painful 10-month, bear market rally. (No, I was averting my eyes, hiding, and well aware that the strength of the bounce would make it some time before reality had another chance to set in.)
And here's another difference...
I'm not LONG now, as he his. In fact, amazingly he's long FAS - the triple financial long ETF - the inverse product of that which annilated him last year. That's quite a ballsy flip-flop, if you ask me.
And I do at least give Atilla credit for that, for the ability to *go both ways*, and for the stones to advertise his trades on the web!. Mike Shedlock won't do it. Neither will Don Luskin or Barry Ritholtz!
But if FAS craters before Atilla can get out, and he gets his tail handed to him again on a public stage by yet another levered ETF,...
I'd advise him to do what I do, and go get himself a new, anonymous moniker!
Myself still firmly encamped, and positioned, in the bear camp....I take solace in how lonely it's getting here. I take solace in that many of my ilk are calling for bounces and/or have opted for hibernation.