Thursday, January 22, 2009

Hints Of Apocalypse?



Today is the first day in recent memory in which both stocks and Treasuries are getting ripped. You can see the drop in Treasuries in the higher 10 year yield above. Or, you can look at TBT, one of my biggest remaining positions, which is up 1.47 to 44.31 as I type this.

As it stands right now, there's at least a trillion more in Treasuries to be sold next year - and that's merely in addition to what already was a monstrous, runaway deficit.

I've been wrong about shorting long-dated Treasuries for a couple years now. But I haven't given up - even though I've coughed up a whole lot of soon-to-be-worthless dollars on the bet.

Remember, I was *wrong* about housing crashing for a few years as well. Look at it now spiraling down the toilet. My Naples real estate buddy told me recently that he has seen a few houses trade below 1994 prices!

Just think where they'll be trading if the long bond crashes.

2 comments:

west coast tom. said...

Tell me more about your buddy in Naples. He's cashing in on the foreclosure market right? Well how can I do that too?

CaptiousNut said...

He ain't *cashing in*...just making some steady money. He's selling about one property per week BUT, 2.5% of 70k ain't much money.

These units used to be 200k. So he needs to sell 3 times as many as he used to for the same income.