Tuesday, January 27, 2009
On Mike Shedlock, Mish
Mish's blog has really vaulted to the top of, not just my reading list, but that of most web-literate market savants. His posting is original, high-quality, and so frequent that one wonders if there's an ignored woman/life-partner in the background.
Yesterday's post Peter Schiff Was Wrong was a veritable fount of edification. Not only did I take the time to read his *most lengthy post ever* but I also meticulously read all 476 comments.
Now don't misunderstand. My praise for this post is not rooted in *piling on Peter Schiff*. I happen to disagree with Mish's verdict. Schiff was right for many years before he was terribly wrong last year. Everyone, except possibly Mish, who's in this business knows darn well that's how it goes. Buffett, Soros, Jim Rogers, Goldman Sachs,....even the savviest of all-time are occasionally spectacularly wrong - as Mish will (if he hasn't already) be one day soon enough.
After Mish rips apart Peter Schiff, he proceeds to toot his own horn; he brandishes his funds' ("Hedged Growth" and "Absolute Return") recent performance:
Yeah, that's right, a man with *over 20 years* in the business is touting his 3.5 year returns - returns he's only comparing to those of the S&P 500. And note that his returns only look *good* in the wake of 2008, an outlier year for the markets.
There ain't nothing like pumping short-term returns, against a low-hurdle benchmark, AND against a man like Peter Schiff who had a terrible 2008!
From my trader's perspective, Mish's *absolute* returns suck and scarcely warrant braggadocio.
He's acting like a third or fourth year trader who, from the perch of a *breakout year*, thinks they've finally commandeered all the nuance of fluctuating securities' prices.
See also my prior post Marginaling Mish.