Wednesday, February 25, 2009
It seems like, from diverse feedback, that out of all of my unofficial trade *recommendations*, it seems like everybody went with the same two - DXO and SWC - both dogs. [Though I made $$$ on SWC stock last year].
Here's the deal - I'm only right about 30% of the time. A picker-and-chooser will not likely replicate my returns/losses. Understand you have to do the whole basket. Minimally, you have to coattail a super-majority of my positions and even then there are no guarantees.
I tried to get a relative to *piggyback* my trades a few years ago and it didn't exactly work out. Out of the first 3 trades, one was a small winner, and the other two losers. My fourth recommendation was to buy Google with me at $177 (click here). There's where he cut me off. He admitted later on that the idea of buying an odd lot (less than 100 shares) was a non-starter.
Of course, I rode that GOOG up to $750 or so (and then back down a bit). Had the piggybacking continued I could have parlayed that paper profit into more aggressive trades.
But we never got to that point.
I think most of y'all picked DXO and SWC for the absolute wrong reasons. You guys picked them because they are numerically cheap.
In fact I even joked with my oft-Moronic cousin, an SWC buyer, that if I had known that one appealed to him....I would have dumped it and gone short!
Don't be afraid to buy a little SKF, SRS, or TBT (when I buy myself, of course). Chances are you'll be buying more with me shortly thereafter - and that odd lot will grow to a round lot. Presently, I'm going to be doing my capital gains from last year and I have a sneaking suspicion that I made all my dough on SKF. We shall see.
I have to rethink what I want to do on this subject. I don't know that I want to post every trade I make in real time; what's in that for me besides eventual WWW embarrassment?; and I don't know how comfortable I am with the implicit responsibility for other people's losses - I have a hard enough time dealing with my own disasters!
But y'all are big boys, big girls, and West Coast Tom.
So I'll continue to post my trades; and promise more intraday updates.
Though I might create an electronic portfolio or something where y'all can see the relative size of my bets.
If this turns out to be too much work, y'all won't get none of it!