Showing posts with label housing bubble. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing bubble. Show all posts

Monday, February 11, 2013

A Few Things...



I haven't watched color TV outside of a Celtics or Patriots game in God knows how long.

BUT I caught that show last night on the tube and found it passable.

Having spent more than my share of time sitting, thinking in bars....I found this guy's insights pretty interesting.

On an another note...

Naples, Florida is truly a beautiful place. In four words it's sunshine, golf, Christians, and homeschooling. So there lurks considerable appeal to me!

BUT there are really no jobs - not for most people anyway, and not compared to larger cities (excepting Boston).

Of course that doesn't mean there's no economic opportunity here. There certainly is.

Guess what folks, the real estate market down here (as it is elsewhere) is getting a little bit bubbly yet again, in my estimation.

Sure, it's not like 2005.

But I heard a guy the other day talk about *buying lots for 600k, building for 600k,...and flipping for over $2 million* in the nicer sections of Naples. That's a pretty good deal if you can pull it off - even once. Building time is only like 7 months.

I went for a run this morning and in 5 blocks saw no less than at least 8 *spec*/*new* homes going up.

I maintain the worst is still yet to come for house prices. Eight years after the Floridian top we still haven't fallen. Places like NYC, Washington, and other pockets have not even really gone down more than a half a notch.

*Speculation* was the culprit before.

Now it's artificially manufactured low interest rates and an inflated stock market. Once the Dow takes a nosedive, all these fossils will shudder. The bull equity run has effectively distracted all the 'old coots' from their loss of *interest income*. They'll take more notice when stocks slide, as they have been known to do.

Think I'm crazy, still calling for a stock crash after all these years?

Well, then, stay long. Sleep tight.

Oh yeah, I also had a fossil in the building tell me that he bought his condo for 108k in 1997 or so.

And he quickly added that that was the price they sold for....BACK IN 1982, as well.


My cousin in Connecticut posted that pic on Fbook.

What do y'all know about *projectors*?

I need to buy one for my classroom teaching - I think.

I'd love to just be able to project questions up on a screen or a wall from my laptop instead of printing everything out. I basically kill entire forests, single-handedly with my math teaching.

Do any of y'all have one? What do you recommend I buy? Thanks in advance



My daughter last week, on Marco Island.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Les Christie Is A Moron


On CNN.com they just ran some reality-inverting article that asserts buying a home today is cheaper than renting.

There were several INSANE assertions in the article (who wants to live in Detroit's cheap crack-houses?) but my favorite was:

Kolko pointed out that places like Honolulu, San Francisco and Boston have strong long-term growth prospects.

Hah! Strong long-term growth prospects in Boston?

And they say *blogs* don't produce quality content!

Monday, March 05, 2012

Stealing The American Dream


Hah!

A buddy/old-neighbor of mine up on Boston's South Shore just sent this to me...

Looking at the picture and the headline I thought for a split-second that it was my old a$$hole landlord!

But then I saw that it was in Maryland; and that it was ONLY $1 million worth of delinquency.

My landlord, as far as I know, still has 3-4 properties that totaled over $4 million in *non-performing* debt.

And he stopped paying everything, 4.5 years ago...

One quick excerpt:

"How is it people can stay in a house for five years without ever making a mortgage payment?” said Thomas A. Lawler, a former senior vice president at Fannie Mae who now runs his own consulting firm in Loudoun County. “That’s a screwed-up process. It’s an example of how the process is broken."


Can you believe this effin' guy quoted in the article???!!!

HE WORKED FOR FANNIE MAE - WHERE IT WAS THEIR POLICY TO NOT EVEN LIST A LOAN AS 'DELINQUENT' UNTIL IT WAS 2 FULL YEARS IN DEFAULT.

Fannie, his company, loses hundreds of billions, he goes out scott-free to run his own *consultancy*....and then waxes outraged at his own former boondoggle!

Monday, February 27, 2012

Warren Buffett - A Housing Moron Too!


Apparently in the past he said that housing would have bottomed by now.

Single family homes only look cheap in Florida and other places that have been over-developed. And they only look cheap because of record-low, unsustainable mortgage rates.

NYC had 3 housing crashes in the 1970s alone. Meanwhile all these bull-market housing Morons think that today, somehow, the housing market correction is going to happen without NYC-area real estate dropping hardly at all - which it hasn't!

Here's the link for his latest.

See also - Warren Buffett - STEALING From Taxpayers!.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Calculated Risk's Bill McBride - Still A Moron!


You can read the nonsense for yourself if you like - but it's a waste of time.

I'll sum it up for you. This Moron says that housing prices are bottoming RIGHT NOW (March 2012).

Of course the fool doesn't even mention RECORD LOW MORTGAGE RATES in his *analysis*. So implicit in his stinky bottom pick is the assumption that sky-high bond prices NEVER drop - at least not in the next 20-30 year lives of mortgages written today.

See also:

Marginalizing Calculated Risk

Marginalizing Calculated Risk, Again

Look, the banks/government ARE NOT FORECLOSING on homes. All of today's optimism has been manufactured by incumbent politicians, the 'old coot' lobby, and sleight of hand finance (i.e. money printing).

I'm not kidding either. Just you watch when NYC home prices inevitably fall...

Check this out:

On February 7, 2012 there were a total of only 242 repossessed properties on the active MLS in Queens according to foreclosure.com. This is a borough with a population of 2.2 million.
If you believe there's really only that many distressed properties in all of Queens....well there's a bridge not far away that perhaps you and Bill McBride should bid on!

Saturday, February 04, 2012

Real Estate Insanity Bubbling Again


It's truly astounding how many Morons haven't learned their lessons - despite all the fresh blood.

Real estate remains a complete suckers' bet. Taxes, utility costs, artificially low interest rates, and unrelenting over-supply have conspired to separate all these fools from their money.

I mean I know people, plenty of people, who got their butts kicked and STILL they figured out some way to re-invest, if not physically, then mentally, in a sun-will-come-out-tomorrow real estate fantasy.

My real estate buddy down here in Naples informed me the other day that one of his clients wanted *in* on a new construction development....so he had to have someone stand in line for say 8:30am one morning to get a choice of lots.

And guess what...

At around 7:30pm the night before there were already 7 Morons waiting in line!!!

So we are staying in this very nice 3 BR 2.5 Bath unit in Bridgewater Bay...

It's going for around $220,000 these days which sounds rather cheap.

BUT IT IS NOT.

Doing the math on carrying the mortgage, HOA's, taxes, etc. I come up with about $19,000 per year - or nearly $1,600 per month, EVERY MONTH, for 30 years.

You could argue that it makes sense as a primary residence, which I won't argue.

But as a secondary one it most certainly does not.

It's better off to rent, still, by a long shot.

I mean why would ANYONE camp-out out for a run-of-the-mill new construction home here in Florida, in 2012, when there are 5-7 years of supply of homes owned by the banks and federal government?

Apparently 60+% of new buyers in Florida these days are buying with *all cash*.

That must imply strong healthy demand, that must imply that there's no bubble forming, right?

WRONG.

All it means is that deposit interest rates are ZERO. I'm sure that many people could have paid all cash in prior years (esp. for cheap FL housing) it's just that they were getting more than .25 % on their money in the bank.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Dear CaptiousNut,


Well, my bank puts are gone now (this month)....and I'm not planning on buying more (but you should!).

If inflation picks up steam....rates will rise and housing will crash. Actually it's still so astronomically high, and over-supplied and under-demanded to the extent that it will crash EVEN with continued low rates.

Yeah, inflation can theoretically raise the price of homes...but you need *wage inflation* and sinking rates for that to happen which is unfortunately the opposite of current economic reality.

Also, inexorably rising property taxes and energy prices are working and will continue to work strongly against home prices.  Don't underestimate this phenomena like EVERYONE else is.

Inflation and deflation rarely permeate across all segments of the economy at the same time.

For example, from the mid-90s to the mid-00s' we had very low commodity inflation.....BUT we had ridiculous inflation in healthcare and education - two effin' big budgetary nuts for most households.

Yeah you can certainly lock in a very low long-term mortgage rate at the moment.

But I submit it's nothing short of a TRAP. Once rates climb (which they certainly will at some point over the next 30 years!) it will be *game over* for the entire real estate market/stock market/economy. And while you may be locked in at a low monthly rate.....that same piece of property will be on sale for a much lower sticker price but at a similar monthly cost of carry to whatever you are paying. But the guy who buys then will benefit from the massive appreciation of his house if/when rates drop again.  So my advice is to wait, horde your cash until there really is blood in the streets.  Unless of course the house is something you are 1,000% sure you want for the rest of your life and you have the means to think of it as a *sunk cost*.

Believe me....once real estate crashes everyone is simply going to stop paying the bank, squat and/or mail their keys back to the bank/government - a la my old landlord in Massachusetts who's still in his house despite having stopped paying the mortgage  AND property taxes 4.5 years ago (thanks GMAC, er taxpayers)!

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Housing Disaster - Still Only in the 4th Inning!


For many years I blogged on the coming/arriving housing disaster...

Few listened.

I hate to beat this dead horse myself so here's Mark Hanson with an update:

Finally, it is extremely important to remember that ever since the mortgage and housing crisis began every last time a "movement" to artificially stimulate mortgage and housing gains momentum with the media, sell side, banks, NAR, builders and government it is only aimed at one thing…that is preventing a disaster lying directly ahead with a quick fix to patch the gaping hole in the side of the ship via kicking the can, protecting the banks from resi whole loan and MBS price discovery, giving something to millions of delinquent borrowers for nothing, and getting votes. None of these things will promote a sustanable recovery in housing. The only true fix for this housing market is time. And it always leads to disappointment.

The most recent ‘movement’ to legislate easier bank lending standards; giving everybody in America with a mortgage something for nothing in the form of an insta-refi; principal balance reduction modifications in hopes of avoiding foreclosures and freeing up homeowners to re-buy (won’t help); and continued foreclosure prevention through things such as bulk REO sales with usage provisions and the GSE’s renting REO (crushing the independent investor and cannibalizing the all important first time buyer cohort) — will end in disappointment as well. Heck, without distressed sales over a third of activity would disappear making macro housing even weaker.

This confluence of panic-bred stimulus lunacy is a perfect recipe for a disaster in the mortgage and housing sectors that will push out an ultimate bottom longer than anybody, include us, is forecasting.
There's plenty more in his report so click the link above.

Hmmmmm.

Realize the next disaster I've been warning y'all about is - schools and college tuition!

Rather than them driving ME into debt with nothing to show for it but worthless diplomas....I'm trying to raise kids who can pay MY country club dues; send ME on cruises; etc.

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Thank Goodness For $20+ Billion In Losses?



This week Bank of America - make that *Ken Lewis' Bank of America* - announced some $20 billion in losses due to its savvy investment in Countrywide Financial.

Hmmm...

Is this the same Countrywide that Ken Lewis' bank was raving about merely 2 years ago?


I'll enlarge the last line:

"THANK GOODNESS WE HAVE IT", i.e. Countywide!!!

And they said that, not only after OVER-PAYING for the subprime lender, but AFTER having many months to scrutinize the books.

Here's what I wrote/predicted 3.5 years earlier, in January 2008:

Ken is not simply paying $4 billion (on top of the $2 billion that already vanished); he is assuming the debt of a company whose liabilities exceed $120 billion. Even with a light recession and slightly higher Treasury rates, his gamble could easily cost BoA $20 billion!

How prescient am I!

And guess what....I'll predict ANOTHER $20 billion in Countywide Losses from here. Look, they lost all that money already and interest rates actually WENT DOWN. What's going to happen to these toxic loans when borrowing rates inevitably uptick???

Revisit my on-target prediction and enjoy one of my all-time most popular posts here:

Bank of America's Ken Lewis - Socialist Hero, Shareholder Villian

Monday, March 21, 2011

Watching A Bubble Pop in Slo-Mo


Old buddy Mr. Mortgage recently poked his head out of his bunker and offered up this:

In final, I am always asked about my predictions for total Foreclosures stemming from the bubble years. And I have said the same thing for years.

In short, there have been 3.5 million foreclosures and short sales to date stemming from legacy loans. There are presently ~7.5 million borrowers delinquent, defaulted, or in Foreclosure at present — grows by 100k to 125k per month — of which 75% to 80% will ultimately be liquidated. If another 7.5 million defaults — and modification redefaults — occur over the next three to five years then a total of 12 million to 15 million Foreclosure, short sale, and deed-in-lieu liquidations will occur, meaning we are now ~25% complete in cleansing the infamous 2003-2007 Bubble-Year’s toxic lending cesspool.
So figure the housing market has been in the $hitter for 2-3 years now...

So he's predicting ANOTHER 6-9 YEARS of housing market pain.

That time frame sounds about right to me - at a minimum anyway.

Of course unless Big Government withdraws a large percentage of *entitlements*....this whole economy is headed in the same direction as housing bubble prices....right into the $hitter!

FYI - As far as I can tell, NYC and its tony suburbs haven't even really been hit by a real estate price decline.  Seriously.  Neither has Washington DC.

Friday, January 07, 2011

Screw Zillow.com


I could be wrong/blind but it appears as though Zillow.com has done away with its best feature - Sales Price History.

Obviously it's an attempt to placate and solicit ads from those unctuous realtors. God forbid any prospective buyer find out that homes can be disastrous *investments*...

Yet another triumph for *opacity*!

Here's hoping the website DIES and its owners get foreclosed upon.

UPDATE - It appears that I am wrong/blind. An intern from Zillow.com informed me in the comment section that *sale history* is still being duly reported on their website.

Look. I most certainly did not imagine this. I'd been looking at *sale history* on that site for a few years before without any trouble. Then all of a sudden I couldn't find that data on the last bunch I pulled up. And it could be because I started searching an area (NY?) that simply didn't have much published sales price history. I don't know. But this morning, BEFORE running this post I did a quick Google of the question and came upon this:


That complaint was not only curiously unanswered, it was ON THEIR WEBSITE. One might think they would address those critiques before coming here...

I simply combined my frustrated personal experience with that corroborating link and a dollop of my trademark cynicism in penning the post. I can't well research everything to the Nth, now can I?

I think they may have removed the explicit link to *sales history* and folded it into their ridiculous estimated *price history* (at the behest of advertising brokers?). So if you click on price history it should be there, although it's *buried* by the laughable and infinitely useless *5 year* default time range. You'll have to expand it.

Note that most real estate brokers today LOVE the *5 year* time-line as well!

Monday, December 06, 2010

Believe It Or Not - Banks Walking On Air


Ignore that graphic's title because it doesn't even begin to broach the real story.

As you can see, over just the past 2 years, the banks have allowed the average foreclosure to become 500 days payment-delinquent up from what had been only a 250-300 day allowance.

But what MEANS is so much more important...

It means that there's a ton of invisible, yet eventual housing supply lurking out there waiting to crush home prices.

And it means that the banks are thoroughly bankrupt already! Why else would they be forestalling losses reality so aggressively?

BTW, I don't care what anyone says....homes in the Northeast cities: Boston, NYC, Philly, Washington DC and their tony suburbs HAVE NOT even begun to decline in price.

While that 5 or sub-5% mortgage rate might seem tempting or reassuring to today's first-time buyers I'm sorry to inform them that it most certainly is FOOL'S GOLD.

While technically their loan is fixed, for 30 years, I submit that it is still, for all intents and purposes, a *teaser rate*. Because once rates inevitably rise, their house will plummet in value, putting them in that massive negative-equity, strategic-default-considering position.

My BIL is looking to buy a house here on Long Island.

It's a nice house; and he can afford it.

But that's besides the point. Check out the real estate taxes on it over the past 5 years:


They've jumped from $7,325 to $11,003 a whopping 50% increase in a only a handful of years!

Happy home-buying, y'all.

Happy bank-stock-buying, y'all.

I couldn't embed the video.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Justice-Free Markets - If We Can Call Them 'Markets'


Despite my steady diet of *selective ignorance* of all things deemed news....I accidentally came across that article in my web surfing and it infuriated me.

So why is JP Morgan actually halting their *foreclosures*?

Well, for a variety of scumbag reasons.

First, it gives them cover to CONTINUE to not realize the crippling losses on their mortgage books.

And THAT, allows management to CONTINUE paying itself bull market wages.

It's also an act of political obeisance to Big Government - after all, JP Morgan is so completely bankrupt that they only exist because of direct access to Washington and to the printing press. So they have to occasionally submit to bend over for that other posse of Big Gov apparatchiks - lawyers.

There's also this econo-illiterate theory prevalent among bankers and Washington incumbents that by simply stalling/halting foreclosures....that this will keep the housing market from EVER falling back to reality. They genuinely believe this but in fairness, these Morons hold dear a vast number of other myths and legends.

But what really made my blood boil in that article was the mention that GMAC - a 200% taxpayer-owned entity - had already, yet again, come up with this same BS excuse to let people like my old landlord hold on to properties that there were already a couple of years delinquent on.

In fact, he's still collecting rent on that rat-infested house that I used to live in. The bills haven't been paid in 2.5 years!!! His first bankruptcy filing was over 6 months ago and he still hasn't been dispossessed of the 4 homes he *owns* and is milking.

Everybody in this picture is making out like the bandits they are.

Meanwhile, the rest of us are suffering from all sorts of crafty new banking and credit card fees, zero interest on our savings, and higher taxes at every level of government.

It doesn't take much foresight to see that these pols WILL NEVER, EVER reverse course - towards the isle of economic prudence.

Nope. They've set us on the path to a full-blown currency implosion.


Today I heard, for the first time in the nearly 15 years I've been following the stock market, I heard some Top-40 DJ mention how great the stock market is doing. He said, "Run home and open those end-of-quarter statements and you'll be smiling..."

Can you say, "shoe shiner stock tips"?

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Hope For Frankophobes

Watch these in sequence:





Some 35 year old Marine, a 4th District native, is running against Barney Frank this November. Expect the money to come pouring in from all over the nation should it look anything at all like an upset is afoot.

Some of my biggest Google traffic comes courtesy of my previous *barney* posts:

Barney Frank - An Invert's Grand Inversion

Raw Footage In Mouthage - Barney Frank

Barney Frank Redefines ZERO LIKELIHOOD

Facts On Fannie Mae = Homophobia

Barney Frank - Unapologetic Shakedown Artist

Dodging Barney Frank

Barney Frank-ly Is A Dissembling Socialist

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

More Evidence: Real Estate Brokers = Morons


Read this - from a sob story on tony Rumson, NY - and tell me where the *analysis* falls flat:

"People don't have the money they used to have," says Richard "Ric" Martel Jr., a broker in the Rumson office of Prudential Zack Shore Properties. "The scenario could be a banker who was making $1.5 million, and now their company went under -- like Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns -- or they have seen their comp cut to $750,000, and the house they bought in 2005 for $1.6 million is now worth $1.1 million, and . . . the mortgage is $1.280 million."

Residents are "still owning nice cars and belonging to beach clubs and country clubs, and they're asking themselves, 'Where can I cut my monthly nut?' The answer is to put their home up for sale."
First correct answer scores a n@ked C-Nut bobblehead doll...

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

NYC Real Estate Stubbornness

This young lady did a *trade-up* in Manhattan. She listed her triplex in Gramercy and bought a penthouse somewhere else in the City.

Only she never did get rid of the first place!

In the video, note her conspicuous dumbness.



I feel like putting it down in the sevens is completely DEVALUING the apartment...

Of course it's actually the *market* that's devaluing the apartment.

It's hard to believe that this Moron lives (for now) in a penthouse apartment.

People thought Florida was devastated when its housing prices dropped 60-70%...

But just wait until NYC prices are down a mere 25%, on their way to at least a 40% peak-to-trough decline.

Raising Prices In A Declining Market



The above house in Hingham, Massachusetts recently was put up for sale.

I got a nice laugh out of that MLS *alert*.

You see, 3 years ago, after languishing unsold for 2+ years, my wife and I gave that suffering speculator his FIRST bid. We bid 700k when it was listed at around 815k. He scoffed at us, countering at 810k.

8 months later, he did in fact unload the house at $767,500 - though I heard from the broker that the sale price included a *large incentive*. In other words, he kicked back a chunk of change to the buyer so they could manipulate the *% down* on their mortgage application. Thus the house probably sold for, net, a number a lot closer to our 700k bid.

Now I know this house inside and out. It's a McMansion not only in a *bad neighborhood*, but also RIGHT ON THE TRAIN TRACKS. The train literally zooms by, a few hundred feet away, at something like 80 mph (I estimate). Furthermore, though the house is large, probably 5,000 square feet including the basement and usable attic, it still only has 3 dedicated bedrooms. Another major demerit for this place is that it has *propane heat* - which is only a half a notch better than budget-crippling electric heat. Who in their right mind wants to heat a 5,000 square foot house with propane?

Don't get me wrong, the house has some nice, modern attributes. Otherwise, we'd never have bid 700k for the place.

So two years after buying the abode at say, roughly, 725k, the current owners want out. Guess what, they listed it at a counter-logical $879,000!!!

The only things they could have possible done since we vetted the house are: finish the almost-finished attic, finish the almost-finished basement, and carpet the master bedroom. And there's no way that could have cost more than 50 grand altogether - never mind that it, like all home improvements, doesn't add a 100% ROI to the value of the house. Where exactly do they get off thinking that a house, ON THE TRAIN TRACKS, that only had two bids on over the course of 3 years....HAS GONE UP IN VALUE by 100 grand between 2007-2009 when the rest of the national housing market has been plummeting?

I say good luck to them!

Recall that we bid on two different homes in Hingham three years ago. Both of them sold about a year after our insulting lowball bids were rebuffed. And BOTH OF THEM hit the open market again in the past few months. The other one was about to be sold but then the (new) owner decided to rent it out.

Why, if I may ask, do people buy homes and (try to) sell them only two years later?

I presume the explanation is usually *job-related*; though the rental above came about because of a *divorce*; and I've read that *medical issues* are also a leading factor for distressed real estate situations.

See also - Real Estate Autopsy.

Friday, July 09, 2010

Indebted = Rich?



Hah! This is precisely the kind of headline I would expect for this story from those indefatigable class-war mongers?

Of course it's inaccurate. Just because the default rate on jumbo ($1 million plus) mortgages is now greater (at 14%) than that of other, lower mortgages....that doesn't necessarily mean it's *rich * people who aren't paying the mortgage.

For example, consider my landlord. That scumbag deadbeat had, and defaulted on, mortgages on three homes in my old neighborhood: $1 million, $1.2 million (on my house), and a $1.8 million note.

Of course he also had several hundred thousand in credit card debt and sundry other liabilities. Recall his bankruptcy filing where he declared only owning a $400 watch and having $10 *cash on hand*.

But according to the agitating New York Times....he must be counted among the reviled *rich* - three times to boot!

Attention NYT - Genuinely rich people don't have mortgages!

Monday, May 24, 2010

IndyMac Offering 3.125% Fixed Rate Mortgages!



I know someone who, like millions of others, had the misfortune to borrow too much against *their* home during the recent housing bubble.

Owing over $500,000 on what's now worth, supposedly, $350,000 he did the rational, best-interests-of-his-family thing and strategically defaulted on the mortgage (400k) and HELOC(150k).

His first mortgage, 395k, was issued by the long-since-bankrupted IndyMac bank. So now the note is held by Goldman Sachs cronies....er, I mean it's owned by us taxpayers and it's being *managed* by and to the financial benefit of Goldman Sachs cronies!

Seven months after deliberately missing his first mortgage payment, *IndyMac Federal Bank* - as it's been reincarnated as - offered him one of those so-called loan mods.

They, speaking for taxpayers and future generations, are offering him a deal:

They will transform his 395k adjustable (to LIBOR + 2.25%) loan to a fixed rate loan of 426k (includes late fees, taxes, etc.) at 3 1/8%.

3 1/8% for 30 years? Are you freakin' kidding me???!!!

The way he figured it, it came to $1,950 per month ("1556+395 for taxes and insurance").

BUT that wasn't precisely the loan *IndyMac Federal Bank* offered him via FedEx today. The numbers seemed off, too low.

Closer inspection revealed that IndyMac was actually offering him a fixed 3.125% mortgage for FORTY YEARS!!!

I have a question - can any of you Morons out there land such generous mortgage terms today?

Can any of y'all get a 426k, 3.125% 40-year loan on a house that, at the fleeting moment anyway, has manifest market value of $350,000???!!!

Realize that money, cheap as it is these days for those with access to the printing press, still isn't that cheap. So the government/taxpayers/IndyMac Federal Bank is offering a deal that's a guaranteed loser for itself.

Sure they can presently borrow short-term at less than 1% to fund these *mods* but that won't last forever - at least not for forty years. Once interest rates spike, not only will IndyMac become insolvent yet again, it will unleash another whole round of strategic mortgage defaults.

This guy asked me to calculate for him his net savings over the next ten years should he accept the loan mod versus, I guess, buying another place at today's market mortgage rate of 5.125%. I'll need some more clarity on the question/scenario to calculate anything at all.

But my hunch is that these hypotheticals are all quite beside the point. Since he'll always retain the capacity to simply re-default, I think he needs only to compare the $1,950 monthly number with what he'd be able to rent for that same monthly nut.

I told him that my hunch is still that the 40 year loan reset is a sucker's play. It's better to default now, and get one's good credit restored within 5 years than to prolong the agony. A loan mod, IMO, would merely delay the inevitable foreclosure as interest rates are all but guaranteed to rise significantly within the next 40 years. In other words, another leg down in the housing market will just, as I mentioned above, force him into another strategic default down the road.

Long-time readers well know my I'm probably not the person to ask about 40 year debt slavery sentences. I'm the one who thinks people should only buy/mortgage what they can afford on a 15 year term.

I'll have more on this one later on, for sure.

See also:

More On Goldman's IndyMac Thievery

The Cheapest Rent

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

A Diversified Attack, On Scum



I found out that my scumbag landlord has scored himself a job, sort of.

So today I contacted his new employer and had a nice 10 minute discussion with him. Items of discussion included: integrity, debt, bankruptcy, fraud, lying, etc.

His new employer was very interested in the discrepancies between what he had thought about my landlord, and what I had just informed him of!

Next I called a State *loan regulator* with whom I wanted to discuss what might be *illegal* self-advertising on the part my landlord. I didn't get through today but will try again later this week.

Then I issued a formal letter of complaint to my local housing authority about some *ordinance violations* by my landlord. A formal letter requires a formal response - which can be appealed and publicized. (I've done a fair amount of leg-work on this one. And it's additional to my already filed Board of Health complaints.)

After that I contacted the office of the bankruptcy judge who is presiding over my landlord's appeal for a *clean financial slate*. I was told they have considerable discretion in meting out leniency. And I was told to write to the judge and convey the whole story of my landlord's theft/crime/fraud/harassment. Except the woman there (a clerk) essentially blew me off. She told me to go bother the *trustee*. So I did.

I called him up and discussed a couple of *misrepresentations* that I found on my landlord's bankruptcy petition. Though the petition is written under an explicit penalty of perjury, the trustee wasn't very receptive to my Captious input. He shrugged his shoulders and half-scoffed that he handles 600 cases a year. But he did tell me precisely the type of evidence he was looking for. So I'll see what I can do.

Now the C-Nut family is moving on and out of this rat-infested house very soon. So why should I care about this clown?

I'll tell you why - BECAUSE no one else does. BECAUSE that's what he's banking on. He sticks his elbows out, screams loudly, and the invertebrates back off.

Most everyone I've contacted about him (banks, utilities, law enforcement, etc.) has stiff-armed me. They simply don't care. They are large bureaucratic entities funded by third party pools of money.

I really enjoy being the ONLY ONE who cares as it sets me apart, as it elevates me into the saddle of a high white horse.

Understand that my landlord does everything in his power to game the system.

So I'm going to match him and do whatever I can think of to see that he loses!

Like a dabbling entrepreneur....I only have to be right but once.

Guess what his new job is?

He's become a *loan originator* for a distressed debt fund!

So he went from pushing toxic loans on minorities in Dorchester, Brockton, and Worcester...

And personally stealing millions from banks with unsecured HELOCs....

To now being essentially a vulture of the very toxic, now-defaulted loans that he helped proliferate (and profit from) in the first place!!!

He may be only one guy in Boston and perhaps couldn't even get a job as a boot-black in Lower Manhattan...

But his career path is nearly a microcosm of what happened on Wall Street these past several years. They trafficked in junk the entire the way up, and will on the entire way down.