Monday, March 21, 2011

Watching A Bubble Pop in Slo-Mo

Old buddy Mr. Mortgage recently poked his head out of his bunker and offered up this:

In final, I am always asked about my predictions for total Foreclosures stemming from the bubble years. And I have said the same thing for years.

In short, there have been 3.5 million foreclosures and short sales to date stemming from legacy loans. There are presently ~7.5 million borrowers delinquent, defaulted, or in Foreclosure at present — grows by 100k to 125k per month — of which 75% to 80% will ultimately be liquidated. If another 7.5 million defaults — and modification redefaults — occur over the next three to five years then a total of 12 million to 15 million Foreclosure, short sale, and deed-in-lieu liquidations will occur, meaning we are now ~25% complete in cleansing the infamous 2003-2007 Bubble-Year’s toxic lending cesspool.
So figure the housing market has been in the $hitter for 2-3 years now...

So he's predicting ANOTHER 6-9 YEARS of housing market pain.

That time frame sounds about right to me - at a minimum anyway.

Of course unless Big Government withdraws a large percentage of *entitlements*....this whole economy is headed in the same direction as housing bubble prices....right into the $hitter!

FYI - As far as I can tell, NYC and its tony suburbs haven't even really been hit by a real estate price decline.  Seriously.  Neither has Washington DC.

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