Friday, June 24, 2005
The Hillary Homerun
I am a very experienced trader. “Experienced” means that I have lost tons of money in a multitude of ways, and have had to dig out of some massive deficits throughout my career. What invariably goes through traders’ minds in rough patches is essentially a homerun dream.
If only my biggest long gets a takeover bid….
If only India fires a nuke at Pakistan (when I was long gold)….
If only IBM misses their earnings this quarter (when I was a bleeding short)…..
You can bet that many a ravaged trader goes to bed dreaming of whatever scenario or event could pull them out of their hole in a flash.
So while I watch today’s obsession with “Hillary in ‘08”, I can’t help but see the parallel. Hillary winning the White House is the homerun dream for more than a few people. ESPECIALLY, when this speculation was running rampant BEFORE Bush even started his second term. Four years is a long ass time…..
(For the record, I predict George Allen will be the Republican nominee. But I don’t go to bed dreaming of it.)
In 1992, Bill Clinton came out of nowhere to win the Democratic nomination. Most likely, someone other than Hillary will be the nominee. Probably at no time in history has someone been the frontrunner for four years.
Furthermore, the Hillary homerun won’t solve the dreamers’ problems entirely. Republicans are gaining at every level of government. What good would Hillary be, other than psychologically comforting, if she is facing big Republican majorities in the legislature?
But I differ from most people I guess, in that I just don’t think who the President is really matters much.
On a related note, I played golf with a guy recently who said he ran into Bill Clinton at Hilton Head (or maybe Kiawah – I can’t remember). He told me that Bill was like a dog in heat, trying to pick up his friend’s wife!!!!!!!!
I am not a big fan of Hillary, but I will take her seven days a week over John Kerry – even though she is a cuckold.