Monday, November 10, 2008
The Hilarious Jim Cramer
"My record of being right from 1980 to 2007 is, I think, unparalleled." - Jim Cramer, 11/07/08.
Hah! Very funny, Jim.
You really have to watch people with their *track records*. In 2006-2007, all you saw advertised by mutual funds and money managers was their *5 year returns*. Not a one was touting their *10 year returns* because those included the 2000 NASDAQ crash.
Similar to Jim Cramer, other bulls like Rich Karlgaard and Ken Fisher have also based their bullish bias upon the slender reed of their own 25 years of market experience.
What they failed to understand or account for, was the fact that interest rates have been declining over that time period. They overlooked the importance of multi-year bull market in bonds on their equity returns.
We're all biased by personal experience and we're all prone to get swept up by the momentum of short-term success....
So we must read history for intellectual ballast.
Note that Jim's buying Wachovia - which is the same as buying Wells Fargo - my biggest short position.
Wells just floated a secondary last week at $27.
Short term history tells us that not a single bank this year has *raised capital* and not fallen substantially lower.
The most recent example is Goldman Sachs who, in late September, sold a preferred stake to Warren Buffett, gave him warrants at $115, and then after the public waxed euphoric about the *genius's* blessing, Goldman peddled $2.5 billion in stock to the sheeple at $123.
Right now Goldman is trading 71.82 - only a month and a half later.
Wells Fargo and that turd Wachovia are going down, hard.
My record in the past 6 weeks is UNPARALLELED - if I do say so myself.