Monday, March 23, 2009
Runaway Bull Market - Trades March 23, 2009
[Alright, I just about doubled my FAZ position again today at approximately 25.50. And added a little SRS at 50.00 in my retirement account.]
What may have been the most frustrating part of today involved my father.
He was over to *help* with the kids whilst I did my taxes and octupled up on leveraged short ETFs.
I had to bear listening to him on the phone SCREAMING at some salesperson for his local newspaper (telgram.com) because they wouldn't give him the same 13-week deal for his subscription renewal as his buddies. The difference between about $51 and $66. Yeah, it was over $15.
My father, an otherwise gentle man, was irate; and demanding to speak with another representative.
Now between what I lost today and the taxes I have to pay Uncle Sam in the next week or so, I am out a hefty six-figure sum.
Yet, my father was more ape-sh*t than I was. And THAT was what was really chafing me!
Seriously, he was far more upset than I was today. This reminded me not that *money is relative*....but rather that *money is merely sand* - though with the power to torment all and sundry.
Posted by CaptiousNut at 9:25 PM
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I just hope this crazy rally doesn't last too much longer. Scaling into a short position during a bear market rally can be very scary. Last year, in the spring, there was a rally that lasted a couple of months. I hope this one doesn't have similar lasting power.
I see that XTrends is having an extremely bad time lately. I guess they can afford the big drawdown due to their huge success earlier this year and the 2nd half of 2008. Those guys really swing for the fences. They must have nerves of steel.
I don't see this lasting. Maybe one more up day. All these inordinately calm (doped up?) government types making propaganda broadcasts on theoretically investigative news shows tells me that the abyss is staring back at them.
Helicopter drops into banks WILL NOT stop a deflation. I don't know where these academics come up with this horseshit.
After reading all your material on ETF Decay, I am not sure why you are still adding SRS to your portfolio. I am in FAZ at avg. price of 22 and in SRS at avg. price of 65. After reading your material, I have actually decided to get out because I don't think I will be able to see these ETFs go down if even the smallest of rally materializes from this point onwards.
And yes, you have an amazing blog, subscribed!
Money is all relative I guess. Last year I lost 25 grand (around 1/4th my account) in a day and went to my rents house for supper with the G-ma. She was on the phone raising her voice every 10 seconds 'til I needed to earmuff myself. Her face looked ready to pop a vessel too. Turns out a store at the mall overcharged her $2 for some item, and she drove back there to reclaim her cash without eating supper first.
I want to ask these old fellers if it is worth the stress and disruption of life to get so upset at such petty things.
The REITs have a legitimate chance of all being *zeros*. That is why I'm playing.
SRS and FAZ are my biggest positions - so my aim is definitely not to talk anyone out of them.
The difference between me and most other traders is that I scale in very slowly. This way I can really load up after big price drops - like now. Furthermore, even though I'm a trader, I can wait a month or two for vindication.
Recently I got crushed in SRS and SKF in the December market rally. I averaged down; went to Florida for January and hardly looked at the market; by the end of the month I had all my money back plus a whole lot more.
In fact, four times in the past year I've had to ride out big, averaged-down losses on banks and REITS,....all four times it's worked out in the end. The fundamentals of this economy are absolutely horrible; layoffs have just started and haven't even hit many industries that are firmly esconced in *denial*. And the banks, well, they have mounds of crap hidden on their books.
This is going to take a few weeks though - and there may be more pain yet if they pull some new rabbit out of the hat against *shorting*.
And yes, these ultrashorts are going to have real problems getting anywhere near their old highs - on account of the *decay* from this massive rally.
This was a lesson in subjective value theory and merely proves the assertion of the Austrians (and other subjective value theorists) that, while we can ordinally rank psychic marginal valuations, we can not cardinally rank these valuations, not intra-personally or inter-personally. Despite your "cost" being a higher total dollar figure than your father, your psychic losses seem to be different in severity altogether!
Then again, it's not surprising... a man of your ego would need to suffer nothing short of the loss of a limb before he were to become irate, yes?
A man of my *ego*?
For sure, if I went bankrupt, my ego would take a serious hit.
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