I had never heard of that last one - BJ's Restaurants - an up-and-comer out west.
Sure, the mom-and-pop cafes, diners, and restaurants have been dropping like flies, and sending their residual customers to the likes of better capitalized institutions like Panera and Chipotle...
But I submit that the if there was any genuine economic wind at the backs of these high-flyers (beyond the Fed printing dollars round the clock), that it was falling commodity prices in 2009 - including the dip in oil/gasoline.
I've had it in my mind to short eateries within this Greater Depression - because once commodity prices start rising again, they'll be absolutely dead.
Apparently, I'm not the only one waxing bearish....
Short interests today (as a percentage of float):
PNRA - 13.10%
BWLD - 25.60%
CMG - 19.00%
BJRI - 30.7%
And I found another - PF Chang's - which has 35.40% of its float shorted at the moment.
With short interest so high, I'm sure the puts ain't cheap. Still, I'm going to take a hard look at them.
2 comments:
You might be on to something with this one.
I counted a 7:2 worker to customer ratio at the local Chipolte a few weeks back. The Starbucks next door was a ghost town.
But on the other hand, the crowd was out the door at Panera for lunch. Although this might be attributable to the loitering wifi mooches.
And there was a 2 hour wait last time I was at Longhorns. But I am guessing a major percentage of that was due to all the after Christmas gift card users...
And then you have all the 2 eat for $20 deals I keep seeing. Granted, the food amounts to a TV dinner and they gouge you 3 bucks per soft drink.
I don't get the appeal of Panera.
Is it a chick place or something?
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